Beyond Bulls & Bears

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2015 Investment Outlook: Europe—The Saga Continues

It is important to emphasize that, despite the current headwinds, we do not foresee a full-blown recession for the eurozone in 2015.

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Global Economic Perspective: December

The lower cost of oil should support economic growth by helping boost corporate earnings and, if it lasts, might lessen the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at anything more than a very gradual pace.

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Alternatives

Portfolio Diversification in the Quantum Age

What happens when markets approach extreme environments like that experienced in 2008 (or October 2014 for that matter)? In these instances it is quite clear that the traditional rules/laws of portfolio diversification do not work as well as intended.

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ECB Meeting Revamp: Implications for Investors

I believe the European Central Bank’s (ECB's) decision to revamp the meeting cycle of its Governing Council so that its monetary policy decisions no longer take place monthly has interesting implications for investors—including potentially reducing the central bank’s volatility.

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Income-Seeking Australians Search for Yield

Instead of chasing yields or returns, bond investors, in our view, should pause and consider how to best construct an investment strategy with the goal of delivering optimal risk and returns to better complement their overall portfolios.

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2015 Investment Outlook: US Credit Cycle Tiptoes into Middle Age

In our view, companies' generally slow and steady approach to spending and expanding has delayed the US economy's progression through the credit cycle.

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Are Lower Oil Prices Here to Stay?

Energy market swings have tended to become more extreme, as investors with short-term horizons can overreact to news. As long-term investors in the energy sector, we have to be even more steadfast in our convictions and not be afraid to act in a contrarian manner.

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The Cure for Low Oil Prices?

Our analysis now centres on an estimation of the break-even price of oil and, in particular, how much it costs to get a barrel of oil out of the ground, because that will likely have significant implications on investment in the sector in the future.

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A Balanced Look at Equity, Fixed Income Fundamentals—and Oil Price Fears

Our current view is that oil markets will likely stabilize over the next several quarters as demand improves and production growth slows to a more manageable pace. More importantly, however, is that many energy-related securities now appear to discount commodity prices at or below the low end of our estimated long-term intrinsic value ranges.

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Weak Euro, Structural Reforms Key to Eurozone Recovery in 2015

The euro is finally starting to weaken against other major currencies, and we think this weakness should provide an important boost for the eurozone’s exporters, which include not only Germany, but Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Italy as well.

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Draghi Crosses the Rubicon while Juncker Peddles “Europhemisms”

When the head of the ECB makes a speech in Frankfurt—the ‘temple’ of central banking—it’s incumbent on those of us who work in the markets to listen to the sermon and draw our own conclusions…that’s the power of active management.