Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Brexit: “I Have Confidence in Confidence Alone”

I do think we’re at a most extraordinary valuation metric across many bond markets that again goes further than just any possible impact on the United Kingdom. For Europe, this situation amplifies the negative growth shock.

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Equity

Brexit: Serious Consequences, but “Not the End of the World”

In the end, any initial success for Brexit will likely depend on whether negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU are amicable or acrimonious.

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Perspectives

A Global Macro View of Brexit Implications

I think it’s important to break the UK Brexit referendum vote into two components: the first being the permanent effects it will likely have on the United Kingdom, Europe and the global economy; and the second being the more temporary factors.

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Equity

Brexit: How Quickly May the Surprise Wear Off?

Our view is it’s important to focus on the fundamentals of individual companies. We think it’s a stock-picker’s market, and there may be some attractive value opportunities opening up, although they may close rather rapidly.

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Equity

The Post-Brexit Irrationality of Markets

Investors are now mulling over what this decision might mean for the UK economy and that of Europe as a whole. Without question, this decision creates uncertainty because there is no blueprint for a country to leave the EU.

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Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe: Brexit Special

It is anticipated that the UK will likely see a hit to growth in the short- and medium-term, with an increased risk of a technical recession, not helped by the profound uncertainty as to the prospects of this political contagion.

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Fixed Income

In The Know: The UK Votes to Leave the EU

If the United Kingdom—the fifth-largest economy in the world—doesn’t want to remain in the EU, can we expect other member states to start asking questions about their continued membership?

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Emerging Markets

Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities

From a labor market perspective, we think it is hard to justify maintaining interest rates at zero or to pursue a negative-interest rate policy in the United States. We would argue the Fed should be raising rates sooner rather than later to avoid losing credibility.

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Perspectives

Thin Slicing the Markets: A Serious Referendum for the British Public

While the consensus still anticipates a ‘remain’ vote, the end result is very much in question. The one-way tide that ‘stay’ had enjoyed for most of the spring has been shaken over the last several weeks.

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Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: June

Our view is that the US economy remains on course to pick up over the rest of this year, despite May’s disappointing payroll report and the Fed’s subsequent decision at its June meeting to leave interest rates unchanged. We do not place too much importance on this single piece of data and believe the economy’s robust fundamentals are likely to fulfill the Fed’s criteria for tightening monetary policy fairly soon.

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Perspectives

Brexit: All Eyes on the Politicians

We believe the ramifications of Brexit for the rest of Europe are far reaching—more so than many people think.

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Value Unbound: The Implications of a Nascent Value Revival

During the (tech) bubble, all it took to topple tech stocks priced for perfection was a little bit of bad news. Just a little bit of good news may be sufficient today to spark a recovery among value stocks that seem to be pricing in permanent disappointment.