Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: September

The BOJ provides perhaps one of the most extreme examples of the repression of interest rates by central banks. At some point, Japan—along with other countries that have embarked on such untested monetary policies—may be forced to address the distortions it has imposed upon its markets.

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Equity

How the Brexit Vote Turned the Spotlight on Small-Cap Value

While we remain wary of complacency, the resilience shown by much of the small-cap universe in July and August has been impressive.

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Fixed Income

Snapshot View: Fed Remains on Hold

If the United States is actually experiencing a 'new normal' where growth remains lower long term, then the Fed risks fueling real or asset-price inflation by being too lax with monetary policy going forward.

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Fixed Income

Will the Fed Take a (Rate) Hike?

With major US market averages hovering near all-time highs and the US economy showing modest growth, I believe that the Fed has the ammunition it needs to pull the trigger and raise its short-term interest rate, possibly this year.

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Equity

Let’s Not Get Complacent About Brexit Just Yet

We think it’s unlikely that the situation today is representative of what will happen as the progress towards the United Kingdom’s eventual exit from the EU unfolds.

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Perspectives

Thin Slicing the Markets: Has “Helicopter Money” Already Landed?

While in theory, the QE 'experiments' implemented post-2008 were intended to be temporary, I believe that in reality the expectation is that central banks around the world have no intention of ever unwinding the extra liquidity they have created.

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Fixed Income

A Summer of European Political Upheaval

While I view the Bank of England decision to cut interest rates further in August—to a record low 0.25%—as an important reaction to the Brexit vote, I think it will be more important to see how it steers its reinvigorated quantitative easing program.