Beyond Bulls & Bears

Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities
Emerging Markets

Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities

From a labor market perspective, we think it is hard to justify maintaining interest rates at zero or to pursue a negative-interest rate policy in the United States. We would argue the Fed should be raising rates sooner rather than later to avoid losing credibility.

Global Economic Perspective: January

Global Economic Perspective: January

Though the rest of the world may not be doing as well as the United States, we think global growth remains acceptable and do not anticipate a global recession or global deflation.

Developments in Islamic Finance
Fixed Income

Developments in Islamic Finance

The growth of Islamic finance in terms of both value and the proliferation of countries participating clearly demonstrates to us solid and sustainable levels of demand for the industry and its underlying values.

Global Economic Perspective: November

Global Economic Perspective: November

While China’s manufacturing sector—which drove China’s rise to its place as the world’s second-largest economy—has been losing steam, it is being supplanted by a domestic, consumer-led economy propelled by a rising middle class with growing income. Other Asian countries are on a similar trajectory.

A Macro View of Recent Market Volatility

A Macro View of Recent Market Volatility

When we look at how much market panic there has been, you’d be under the impression China is headed full-speed into full-blown recession. That is not our call. We expect moderation in China’s growth and continue to see it as healthy.

Unconstrained Global Investing in an Extraordinary Monetary Policy Environment

Unconstrained Global Investing in an Extraordinary Monetary Policy Environment

As we see it, it is only a matter of time before US wages start to rise to levels where inflation is triggered. Using the Fed’s own estimates, we are quite close to what’s considered to be full employment. To us, this does not justify 0% interest rates.

Greece: Stuck in the Middle

Greece: Stuck in the Middle

Opinion polls show that many Greek voters support Athens's tough negotiation tactics. But the polls also show that most Greeks want their country to remain in the eurozone—but to do so would require agreeing with the zone's austerity demands. I think this would be the definition of a pickle.

Global Economic Perspective: April

Global Economic Perspective: April

Given the example set by US equity markets after the Fed stepped in to buy government debt in two successive QE programs, investors appear convinced that the rally in European financial markets has considerably longer to run.

Hasenstab on Global Growth: Headwinds or Tailwinds?

Hasenstab on Global Growth: Headwinds or Tailwinds?

The core of our strategy for 2015 continues to be positioning to navigate an anticipated rising-rate environment in the United States.

2015 Investment Outlook: Global Equities and the Opportunities within the Challenges of Shariah Investing

2015 Investment Outlook: Global Equities and the Opportunities within the Challenges of Shariah Investing

It has been our view that the only lever the Japanese government has full control of is monetary policy. Fiscal stimulus is constrained by national debt levels and the difficulty of raising tax revenue and structural reform. Even if maximised and fully implemented, it would likely take time to show results.

Global Economic Perspective: November

Global Economic Perspective: November

We continue to believe there is a possibility that US rate increases could come faster than the market has been forecasting until recently.

The Implications of Easing

The Implications of Easing

For now, we believe the most recent easing efforts of Japan and the ECB should offset concerns about the end of the Fed’s QE programs and that these efforts will continue to provide liquidity to the markets. But, we’ll be watching for any unwelcome aftershocks.