Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Unconstrained Global Investing in an Extraordinary Monetary Policy Environment

As we see it, it is only a matter of time before US wages start to rise to levels where inflation is triggered. Using the Fed’s own estimates, we are quite close to what’s considered to be full employment. To us, this does not justify 0% interest rates.

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Greece: Stuck in the Middle

Opinion polls show that many Greek voters support Athens's tough negotiation tactics. But the polls also show that most Greeks want their country to remain in the eurozone—but to do so would require agreeing with the zone's austerity demands. I think this would be the definition of a pickle.

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Global Economic Perspective: April

Given the example set by US equity markets after the Fed stepped in to buy government debt in two successive QE programs, investors appear convinced that the rally in European financial markets has considerably longer to run.

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Hasenstab on Global Growth: Headwinds or Tailwinds?

The core of our strategy for 2015 continues to be positioning to navigate an anticipated rising-rate environment in the United States.

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2015 Investment Outlook: Global Equities and the Opportunities within the Challenges of Shariah Investing

It has been our view that the only lever the Japanese government has full control of is monetary policy. Fiscal stimulus is constrained by national debt levels and the difficulty of raising tax revenue and structural reform. Even if maximised and fully implemented, it would likely take time to show results.

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Global Economic Perspective: November

We continue to believe there is a possibility that US rate increases could come faster than the market has been forecasting until recently.

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The Implications of Easing

For now, we believe the most recent easing efforts of Japan and the ECB should offset concerns about the end of the Fed’s QE programs and that these efforts will continue to provide liquidity to the markets. But, we’ll be watching for any unwelcome aftershocks.

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The International Attraction of MENA Markets

The Saudi Arabian cabinet has finally authorized foreign direct investment in locally listed equities, with market opening now targeted for the first half of 2015. This is unanimously viewed as a massive step forward for the region.

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Hasenstab: The Contrarian Case of Hungary

We started investing in Hungary a number of years ago when the market was very bearish on the fundamental outlook for the country. We saw long-term potential even though we recognized that in the short term Hungary faced a difficult period.

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On-the-Ground Perspective in Thailand

For most Thais and Thailand-watchers (including us), military coups in the country have almost become a way of life.

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India’s Landmark Election: A New Direction

As investors in India’s equity markets, we hope the recent election will lead to the creation of a stable government that is able to overcome what we regard as the prevailing political paralysis and push through major reforms awaiting government approval.

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Emerging Markets: Ugly Duckling or Swan?