Beyond Bulls & Bears

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On January Barometers and Market Bargains

We are now witnessing historic extremes in the discount afforded to value relative to growth, quality and safety. While this environment has been (and may remain) painful for some time, the eventual normalization of these extremes represents the most compelling opportunities in equity markets today.

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Will Equities See a Sweeter ’16 Ahead?

Global financial markets still face numerous risks, but the drivers of corporate profitability appear to us to be sustainable in the current business and economic environment.

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A Year for Value?

While stocks are certainly vulnerable to near-term volatility, we think the asset class globally remains well positioned for long-term performance potential.

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A Sense of Déjà Vu

We enter 2016 with a sense of déjà vu. Areas of the global financial market where longer-term risk/reward profiles were more attractive to us last year remain so in the early stages of 2016, driven in part by the persistence of several important financial and economic factors.

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Equity

In the Know: What’s Ailing US Biotech?

Even if Hillary Clinton’s prescription plan, as we currently understand it, did ultimately pass, in my view the impact would be very manageable for the (biotech) sector.

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Connecting with the “Internet of Things”

We now see a trend where smart devices can connect to one another and share data, allowing them to perform new and exciting tasks. We believe the explosion of such connected devices will significantly change the way individuals and businesses operate on a daily basis.

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Kissing a Lot of Frogs: The Work of a Small-Cap Manager

Given the (UK) domestic bias to the earnings of smaller caps compared with larger caps, small caps seem to us to be more attractive as the global growth outlook faces numerous headwinds

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Equity

Finding Value in Volatility

As the US Federal Reserve Board attempts to begin raising rates, we see a potential catalyst for a value recovery over our long-term investment horizon.

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Summer Slump Strikes Oil Again

The timing and the amount of (Iranian) oil that will find its way into the market are still hotly debated, and this will determine whether the return of Iranian barrels will be orderly or become disruptive to global markets.

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Europe: Back to Business

The main, very positive consequence of the Greek rescue agreement—even if nobody in Greece or in the eurozone at large seems to like it—is that Greece appears to be staying in the eurozone and the construct has been safeguarded.

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Greece’s Precarious Position

Given how fluid this situation is currently, attempting to assign probabilities to a Greek exit scenario remains a moving target on a daily basis.

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Is There Value Left in UK Stocks?

A phenomenon that we think will have an increasing impact on stock markets this year is merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, which has been running at markedly lower levels in the last year or so, particularly in the United Kingdom.