Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Does Dutch Election Result Signal an End to Europe’s Populist Surge?

The Scottish government’s demand for a second independence referendum should not have come as a surprise to most observers, but the timing could scarcely have been more awkward for UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

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Fixed Income

Why Fixed-Income Investors Shouldn’t Fret About Fed Tightening

We view Fed tightening with a positive lens and believe there are still plenty of potential opportunities within the fixed-income landscape for investors.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: March

Even though confidence among US businesses and consumers has been lifted by the advent of a new administration, the question of whether this buoyant mood is likely to translate into a significant pickup in US economic growth remains unanswered, in our view.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: February

The outlook for the global economy appears a little better, in our view, and overall growth in 2017 could well show a slight improvement from a year ago. The stability in the Chinese economy is encouraging, and surveys in many parts of the world suggest confidence has increased.

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Fixed Income

Latin America: The Rise and Fall of Populism

Sharp criticism of the North American Free Trade Agreement and of immigration from Mexico signaled a temptation for the United States to turn its back on Latin America. This would be damaging to the US economy, and especially ironic at a time when key Latin American economies are moving in the opposite direction, turning away from populist economic policies.

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Fixed Income

European Bond Market: What Lies Beyond the Politics?

While politics may dominate the investment agenda in Europe and further afield, it won’t be the only theme for investors, in our view.

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Fixed Income

2017 MENA Outlook: A Quiet Economic Evolution

We’ve seen more happen to the GCC economies in the past 18 months than we’ve seen happen over the past 10 years. In our view, these structural reforms have fundamentally altered the fiscal landscape.

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Fixed Income

Australian Headwinds May Benefit Yield-Seeking Investors

Since the fundamental determinants of bond yields—economic activity and inflation—are expected to be muted this year, the recent rise in Australian government bond yields presents an opportunity for investors, especially in the short end of the bond curve.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: January

This year will likely offer up both opportunities and pitfalls for policymakers, but the solidity of current data reinforces our confidence the US economy is starting off on a sure footing. However, with meaningful change hard to engineer, both in terms of politics and economic outcomes, our sense is the pace of delivery may turn out to be slower than some market participants seem to expect.

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Equity

Driving a Case for Convertibles in 2017

In our view, 2017 could be a year where the unique properties of convertibles become an important feature for investors' asset allocation.

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Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: December

We feel some caution may be required before assuming that a more expansionary fiscal approach by the new [Trump] administration will quickly translate into a sustainably higher growth rate for the US economy. While the US corporate sector could benefit from future tax cuts, it may suffer if other policies are introduced that restrict trade or immigration.

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Fixed Income

In the Know: Fed Lifts Rates, but “Lower for Longer” Likely

We are cautiously optimistic the backdrop of potentially lower regulation and lower taxes could be a net positive for US economic growth and the corporate environment broadly, but many of the potential changes are likely to be easier said than done. To not anticipate any bumps would be overly optimistic.