Beyond Bulls & Bears

Card image cap
Fixed Income

European Bond Market: What Lies Beyond the Politics?

While politics may dominate the investment agenda in Europe and further afield, it won’t be the only theme for investors, in our view.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

2017 MENA Outlook: A Quiet Economic Evolution

We’ve seen more happen to the GCC economies in the past 18 months than we’ve seen happen over the past 10 years. In our view, these structural reforms have fundamentally altered the fiscal landscape.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Australian Headwinds May Benefit Yield-Seeking Investors

Since the fundamental determinants of bond yields—economic activity and inflation—are expected to be muted this year, the recent rise in Australian government bond yields presents an opportunity for investors, especially in the short end of the bond curve.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: January

This year will likely offer up both opportunities and pitfalls for policymakers, but the solidity of current data reinforces our confidence the US economy is starting off on a sure footing. However, with meaningful change hard to engineer, both in terms of politics and economic outcomes, our sense is the pace of delivery may turn out to be slower than some market participants seem to expect.

Card image cap
Equity

Driving a Case for Convertibles in 2017

In our view, 2017 could be a year where the unique properties of convertibles become an important feature for investors' asset allocation.

Card image cap
Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: December

We feel some caution may be required before assuming that a more expansionary fiscal approach by the new [Trump] administration will quickly translate into a sustainably higher growth rate for the US economy. While the US corporate sector could benefit from future tax cuts, it may suffer if other policies are introduced that restrict trade or immigration.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

In the Know: Fed Lifts Rates, but “Lower for Longer” Likely

We are cautiously optimistic the backdrop of potentially lower regulation and lower taxes could be a net positive for US economic growth and the corporate environment broadly, but many of the potential changes are likely to be easier said than done. To not anticipate any bumps would be overly optimistic.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Finding the Positives from a Tumultuous Week in Europe

While I think it’s important to continue to look at the underlying fundamentals, I maintain that politics and monetary policy will the most important drivers of financial markets over the next year.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Why Markets Are More Cautious About the Next Potential Political Pitfall

Although the Italian constitutional referendum may seem parochial compared with the US election or the Brexit vote, it has the potential to bring further uncertainty to a European Union which is already struggling to digest the implications of Trump’s victory.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

We do not believe a Trump presidency will materially alter the course of the US economy in the near term. Fundamentals ultimately drive longer-term performance in the fixed income markets, and in our view, these remain broadly supportive of a slow but steady rate of expansion.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Hasenstab: US Election Rhetoric vs. Realities

I think we learned a lot from the post-US election market reaction. We learned which markets are vulnerable, which were oversold, and by and large, see some of these market dislocations as an opportunity if we can sift through them.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Fixed Income Markets and the US Election: What Really Matters

In terms of US monetary policy, on balance we don’t think the election itself will materially impact the path of interest rates unless the economic fundamentals materially reversed. Additionally, the passage of election uncertainty should remove another potential objection to continuing on a gradual tightening path.