Beyond Bulls & Bears

Card image cap

Inflation: Dead, or Just Forgotten?

We believe that widespread underestimation of future inflation, together with the prospective normalization in the relationship between long-term interest rates and nominal GDP growth, sets the stage for a significant correction in Treasury yields.

Card image cap

Global Economic Perspective: January

Though the rest of the world may not be doing as well as the United States, we think global growth remains acceptable and do not anticipate a global recession or global deflation.

Card image cap

Why We’re Not Panicking about China

On the whole, our view remains that underlying conditions in the Chinese economy are fundamentally more stable than markets have recently indicated.

Card image cap

No Fireworks from the ECB as Draghi Plays It Cool

(Mario) Draghi and his governing council colleagues wanted to avoid rocking the boat too much, preferring instead to keep things moving and to show that they were prepared to act.

Card image cap

Global Economic Perspective: October

Overall, while there are plenty of ‘problem children’ in the emerging-market space, there are undoubtedly assets and currencies being beaten down by broad-brush assessments of economic prospects that merit renewed attention.

Card image cap

European QE: Has It Been Worth the Effort?

Now, we feel the time is right for a further shot in the arm. In our view, it’s not a question of whether the ECB will extend QE, it’s a question of when: Will the announcement come in October or December?

Card image cap
Perspectives

Hasenstab Sees Once-in-a-Multi-Decade Opportunities

There are a handful of countries that are being caught up in the current market turmoil that we think are the diamonds in the rough—multi-decade opportunities, once-in-the-history of some of these countries—opportunities.

Card image cap

I Know What You Missed This Summer

Volatility doesn’t necessarily mean bad news for active investors; on the contrary, we believe it opens up doors for those brave enough to take positions on in a longer term view.

Card image cap

Rising Rates and the Case for Leveraged Loans

For certain investors—in particular pension funds and insurance companies that tend to follow a more cautious investment strategy—the extended period of record or near-record low US interest rates has been a thorn in the side.

Card image cap

Global Economic Perspective: August

We believe sound headline job creation figures point to rate increases by a [US] Fed that would like to begin to ‘normalize’ monetary policy when possible. The US economy is no longer in the emergency room, as it was in December 2008.

Card image cap

Searching for Natural Hedges Against Interest-Rate Risk

We have found that historically over time, interest-rate moves don’t often play as large of a role in a broadly diversified fixed income portfolio as one might think.

Card image cap

European Drama Hasn’t Derailed US Growth

We believe headwinds to growth have been easing and what the current leg of the US expansion has perhaps lacked in intensity may very well be made up for by a transition to a more durable or lengthy expansion.