Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Why Europe Is Wrong to Ignore the Threat of Brexit

Many European investors seem to think this so-called 'Brexit' decision is an issue that will only affect the United Kingdom. We think they’re mistaken and that Brexit has significant implications for investment markets in Europe as a whole.

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Putting Europe’s Growing Bond Market into Perspective

We share the widespread expectation the volatility that we’ve seen in recent months will continue for some time to come and that is why we expect the ECB to provide more easing, probably by extending its QE programme yet further.

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This Is Not 2008

The risk aversion across emerging markets appears to have reached a maximum state of unwarranted pessimism, in our view, and we see a vast set of valuation opportunities amid the volatility.

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Global Economic Perspective: February

The impact of China’s rebalancing is likely to remain a headwind, particularly for countries that have relied on its appetite for raw materials. But this is likely to be counterbalanced by the continuation of the various accommodative monetary policies that are in place around the world.

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Inflation: Dead, or Just Forgotten?

We believe that widespread underestimation of future inflation, together with the prospective normalization in the relationship between long-term interest rates and nominal GDP growth, sets the stage for a significant correction in Treasury yields.

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Global Economic Perspective: January

Though the rest of the world may not be doing as well as the United States, we think global growth remains acceptable and do not anticipate a global recession or global deflation.

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Why We’re Not Panicking about China

On the whole, our view remains that underlying conditions in the Chinese economy are fundamentally more stable than markets have recently indicated.

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No Fireworks from the ECB as Draghi Plays It Cool

(Mario) Draghi and his governing council colleagues wanted to avoid rocking the boat too much, preferring instead to keep things moving and to show that they were prepared to act.

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Global Economic Perspective: October

Overall, while there are plenty of ‘problem children’ in the emerging-market space, there are undoubtedly assets and currencies being beaten down by broad-brush assessments of economic prospects that merit renewed attention.

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European QE: Has It Been Worth the Effort?

Now, we feel the time is right for a further shot in the arm. In our view, it’s not a question of whether the ECB will extend QE, it’s a question of when: Will the announcement come in October or December?

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Perspectives

Hasenstab Sees Once-in-a-Multi-Decade Opportunities

There are a handful of countries that are being caught up in the current market turmoil that we think are the diamonds in the rough—multi-decade opportunities, once-in-the-history of some of these countries—opportunities.

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I Know What You Missed This Summer

Volatility doesn’t necessarily mean bad news for active investors; on the contrary, we believe it opens up doors for those brave enough to take positions on in a longer term view.