Beyond Bulls & Bears

Card image cap
Equity

Why a Continued Rise in Gold Prices May Still Pan Out

One of the key drivers for gold is uncertainty. While all elections bring change, given the US results this year and subsequent market reaction, upcoming elections in Europe and elsewhere seem to have the potential for more upheaval than most.

Card image cap
Equity

There’s More to India Than Just the Growth Story

The past few decades have brought about a shift in the types of jobs available in India—from low-paying agricultural jobs to higher-paying manufacturing and service jobs. Given the increase in disposable income, we believe consumer demand will drive company earnings growth as well as the Indian economy.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Why Markets Are More Cautious About the Next Potential Political Pitfall

Although the Italian constitutional referendum may seem parochial compared with the US election or the Brexit vote, it has the potential to bring further uncertainty to a European Union which is already struggling to digest the implications of Trump’s victory.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

We do not believe a Trump presidency will materially alter the course of the US economy in the near term. Fundamentals ultimately drive longer-term performance in the fixed income markets, and in our view, these remain broadly supportive of a slow but steady rate of expansion.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Hasenstab: US Election Rhetoric vs. Realities

I think we learned a lot from the post-US election market reaction. We learned which markets are vulnerable, which were oversold, and by and large, see some of these market dislocations as an opportunity if we can sift through them.

Card image cap
Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – US Election Special

For Asian markets trading Wednesday morning, we felt it was almost a replay of the Brexit tape—initial complacency made a hard turn into the realisation that an upset was imminent.

Card image cap
Perspectives

America Decides: A Vote for Change

The next 100 days are critical for the newly elected officials in the United States, and we will continue to gain clarity on many policy items over that timeframe. There is no doubt that this election, and outcome has challenged the status quo and we could see even small issues become larger should impasses persist.

Card image cap
Equity

Stock-Market Value Hunting—and a Potential Post-Election Outcome

When looking at various countries or regions where we invest, we consider emerging markets as representing a disproportionate amount of where equity value exists today after several years of underperformance relative to developed markets.

Card image cap
Equity

What’s Driving US, European Voter Resentment?

Voters in a democracy often respond more to perception than reality, particularly when it comes to issues of patriotism, pride and identity. It isn’t always just about the bottom line.

Card image cap
Alternatives

Helicopter Money: Pulling a Brick with a Rubber Band

Helicopter money may be an interesting theoretical idea and fun mental exercise in hypotheticals for economists to engage in, but in my humble opinion that is where it needs to stay—in theory.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Fixed Income Markets and the US Election: What Really Matters

In terms of US monetary policy, on balance we don’t think the election itself will materially impact the path of interest rates unless the economic fundamentals materially reversed. Additionally, the passage of election uncertainty should remove another potential objection to continuing on a gradual tightening path.

Card image cap
Alternatives

Fourth-Quarter Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: K2 Advisors

We expect overall volatility to increase across the global markets, and often emerging markets are more volatile than their developed counterparts. With this volatility we anticipate the arrival of opportunity, and we believe it will likely be manifest across all three major asset classes—equity, fixed income and currency.