Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Equity

Brexit and the Difficulty in Forecasting UK Market Fortunes

As we head into year-end, UK Equity team’s Colin Morton explains why making predictions for the UK equity market in 2018 is a particularly challenging task this time around.

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Equity

Is the Energy Sector Starting to Turn?

“Given the current lower-price environment, market volatility and future uncertainty, many investors have perceived oilfield services stocks as too risky. That, in turn, has led to more attractive valuations for these stocks that we believe could be creating attractive investment opportunities.” – Fred Fromm, Franklin Equity Group

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

"Investors’ perceptions about the intentions of central banks, rather than economic fundamentals, are likely to remain the central driver of fixed income markets. Uncertainty created by factors such as geopolitics may only serve to convince policymakers to maintain a looser monetary stance than might otherwise be expected by economic conditions." - Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Perspectives

How Technology Has Set Industries on a Journey of Opportunity

"As we look at the race for fully autonomous automobiles, the question of who will get there first—and more importantly who figures out how to commercialise and monetise this technology once they do get there—is still pretty wide open." - James Cross, Robert Rendler and Robert Stevenson, Franklin Equity Group and Aleck Beach, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Fixed Income

Where Might Credit Risks Exist? Follow the Supply

“Companies—and entire Industries—have quickly disappeared. When there is tremendous change combined with heavy supply, there are going to be winners and losers. I think we are likely to see an increase in idiosyncratic risk in the marketplace going forward. I’d label this technological innovation disruption.” – Roger Bayston, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

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Perspectives

Self-Driving Vehicles: Evaluating the Possible Impacts

The race to develop truly autonomous vehicles continues to pick up speed. Not only are passenger cars in the race, but also trucks and buses. Autonomous vehicle technology truly holds the potential to reshape many industries, in ways we probably haven’t even thought of yet. Recently, Franklin Templeton Investments assembled a panel of industry experts to talk about where they see the future of self-driving technology, and how long they think it will take to get to the finish line.

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Fixed Income

Why Australia May Not Join the Rate-Tightening Party

“We don’t think the RBA is likely to raise rates in the next 12-18 months. There is a heavy load on the shoulders of Australian households. Australia’s economy is benefiting from global growth, particularly in China, but that growth would have to be quite significant to reduce household debt or improve wage growth. If these issues don’t improve in the next year or so, we believe the RBA’s next course of action could be a rate cut.” – Chris Siniakov and Andrew Canobi, Australia Fixed Income team

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Alternatives

A Story of Risk Management, and Flying to the Moon

Risk management is a key part of many endeavors, from space travel to investment management. In either case, achieving one’s goals requires awareness of what could go wrong, as well as careful attention to details in often-changing conditions to ensure the smoothest possible journey. Tilak Lal, vice president, Performance Analysis & Investment Risk at Franklin Templeton Investments, describes what risk is within the investment space, and how risk management is essential to success.

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Fixed Income

The Fed’s Long Unwinding Road

“The multi-year massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet has had a recognized powerful effect on asset markets—lowering yields and flattening the yield curve. Yet investors now seem to expect that the reverse process will have little impact, if any. We disagree.” - Michael Hasenstab, Templeton Global Macro

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Perspectives

Preparing for a Possible Post-LIBOR World

“We believe a change from LIBOR to an alternative benchmark would be significant. Global lenders use LIBOR to set interest rates for a variety of financial products, including interest-rate swaps, student loans, mortgages, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and floating-rate loans. A change would require amendments to contracts and credit agreements, underlying trillions of dollars in global assets.” – Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Mark Boyadjian and Reema Agarwal

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Alternatives

Global Listed Real Estate: A Key Building Block

“One reason for real estate’s strong performance, even in a rising rate environment, is that rising interest rates tend to coincide with periods of greater economic growth. As economic activity gathers pace, it creates more jobs and, in turn, wages increase. Demand for real estate tends to move higher as well.” – Wilson Magee, Franklin Real Asset Advisors

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Fixed Income

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive

“The markets should take some comfort in Powell, as he is a current Fed governor and more or less represents the current state of affairs, business as usual. He has worked alongside Yellen since 2012, and they are philosophically alike (dovish bent).” Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group