Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Equity

Europe’s Main Event: Economics vs. Politics

I believe the concerns (US President Donald) Trump has regarding trade with Mexico and China would not apply to Europe. Europe is not a low-cost area, not only where wages are concerned, but also where taxes are concerned.

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Fixed Income

Latin America: The Rise and Fall of Populism

Sharp criticism of the North American Free Trade Agreement and of immigration from Mexico signaled a temptation for the United States to turn its back on Latin America. This would be damaging to the US economy, and especially ironic at a time when key Latin American economies are moving in the opposite direction, turning away from populist economic policies.

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Alternatives

First-Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: K2 Advisors

Since the US election, markets have confidently placed their bets squarely on hope, and essentially little else. Is this level of hope (optimism) rational? It certainly seems like a lot to expect. But truth is indeed often stranger than fiction, and even the most gifted of storytellers would likely never imagine a more fantastic yarn than the reality of this election cycle.

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Equity

Meet the Manager: Serena Perin Vinton

(Jerry Palmieri) made me realize that in this business, experience does matter, and portfolio managers can become more seasoned and better investors over time by learning from that experience.

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Fixed Income

European Bond Market: What Lies Beyond the Politics?

While politics may dominate the investment agenda in Europe and further afield, it won’t be the only theme for investors, in our view.

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Fixed Income

2017 MENA Outlook: A Quiet Economic Evolution

We’ve seen more happen to the GCC economies in the past 18 months than we’ve seen happen over the past 10 years. In our view, these structural reforms have fundamentally altered the fiscal landscape.

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Fixed Income

Australian Headwinds May Benefit Yield-Seeking Investors

Since the fundamental determinants of bond yields—economic activity and inflation—are expected to be muted this year, the recent rise in Australian government bond yields presents an opportunity for investors, especially in the short end of the bond curve.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: January

This year will likely offer up both opportunities and pitfalls for policymakers, but the solidity of current data reinforces our confidence the US economy is starting off on a sure footing. However, with meaningful change hard to engineer, both in terms of politics and economic outcomes, our sense is the pace of delivery may turn out to be slower than some market participants seem to expect.

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Equity

Is There Scope For Optimism in Europe in 2017?

We are confident that we could see a decent earnings recovery in sectors whose earnings have been depressed for a couple of years (financials, energy), while cyclical sectors overall should likely benefit from a stronger economy overall.

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Equity

Driving a Case for Convertibles in 2017

In our view, 2017 could be a year where the unique properties of convertibles become an important feature for investors' asset allocation.

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Equity

Politics, Policy Uncertainties Likely to Sway Markets in 2017

As markets get more clarity on the emerging policy backdrop, we believe companies with strong growth potential that the market has overlooked will likely fare well over the longer term.

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Equity

The Great Sector Rotation, and the Road Ahead for UK Equities

In the closing months of 2016, there were big changes in some of the financial metrics that feed into economic assumptions and indeed equity valuation assumptions, and we think that sets the tone for where we move into 2017.