Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Hasenstab: US Election Rhetoric vs. Realities

I think we learned a lot from the post-US election market reaction. We learned which markets are vulnerable, which were oversold, and by and large, see some of these market dislocations as an opportunity if we can sift through them.

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Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – US Election Special

For Asian markets trading Wednesday morning, we felt it was almost a replay of the Brexit tape—initial complacency made a hard turn into the realisation that an upset was imminent.

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Perspectives

America Decides: A Vote for Change

The next 100 days are critical for the newly elected officials in the United States, and we will continue to gain clarity on many policy items over that timeframe. There is no doubt that this election, and outcome has challenged the status quo and we could see even small issues become larger should impasses persist.

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Equity

Stock-Market Value Hunting—and a Potential Post-Election Outcome

When looking at various countries or regions where we invest, we consider emerging markets as representing a disproportionate amount of where equity value exists today after several years of underperformance relative to developed markets.

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Equity

What’s Driving US, European Voter Resentment?

Voters in a democracy often respond more to perception than reality, particularly when it comes to issues of patriotism, pride and identity. It isn’t always just about the bottom line.

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Alternatives

Helicopter Money: Pulling a Brick with a Rubber Band

Helicopter money may be an interesting theoretical idea and fun mental exercise in hypotheticals for economists to engage in, but in my humble opinion that is where it needs to stay—in theory.

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Fixed Income

Fixed Income Markets and the US Election: What Really Matters

In terms of US monetary policy, on balance we don’t think the election itself will materially impact the path of interest rates unless the economic fundamentals materially reversed. Additionally, the passage of election uncertainty should remove another potential objection to continuing on a gradual tightening path.

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Alternatives

Fourth-Quarter Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook: K2 Advisors

We expect overall volatility to increase across the global markets, and often emerging markets are more volatile than their developed counterparts. With this volatility we anticipate the arrival of opportunity, and we believe it will likely be manifest across all three major asset classes—equity, fixed income and currency.

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Equity

Smartphones and Software Keys to Realizing “Dot-Com Dreams”

We believe many of the unfulfilled dreams of the dot-com era are finally being realized as the convergence of hyper-connected consumers and increasingly sophisticated technology and software has allowed companies to provide services that seemed impossible even 10 years ago.

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Equity

3 Reasons Why Investors Should Ignore Political Threats to Biotech

Given that the United States is considered a world leader in pharmaceutical innovation, we think it’s unlikely that politicians would want to impede the profit motivation of innovation and potentially severely impair the industry’s growth.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: October

While heartened by the bounce in oil prices after the multi-decade lows reached early in the year, any significant further rally in energy prices would seem to us to require a far more vibrant global economy. As the IMF’s (and the Fed’s) relatively subdued outlooks make clear, it is hard to anticipate such a scenario occurring anytime soon.

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Fixed Income

US Election Implications for Europe: What Many Observers Are Missing

It’s fair to say that global referendums held recently have not proved terribly successful for their organisers. Whether that unhappy tradition continues with the Italian referendum on constitutional reform scheduled to be held on December 4 remains to be seen.