Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Equity

2017 US Growth Investing Outlook

Information technology and health care will likely continue to be areas of focus for us in both 2017 and beyond. Innovation and a changing landscape are creating compelling opportunities for investment, in our view. We see technology spending and investment as being much less discretionary than one might think, giving tech a resiliency factor not typically associated with the sector.

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Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: December

We feel some caution may be required before assuming that a more expansionary fiscal approach by the new [Trump] administration will quickly translate into a sustainably higher growth rate for the US economy. While the US corporate sector could benefit from future tax cuts, it may suffer if other policies are introduced that restrict trade or immigration.

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Fixed Income

In the Know: Fed Lifts Rates, but “Lower for Longer” Likely

We are cautiously optimistic the backdrop of potentially lower regulation and lower taxes could be a net positive for US economic growth and the corporate environment broadly, but many of the potential changes are likely to be easier said than done. To not anticipate any bumps would be overly optimistic.

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Fixed Income

Finding the Positives from a Tumultuous Week in Europe

While I think it’s important to continue to look at the underlying fundamentals, I maintain that politics and monetary policy will the most important drivers of financial markets over the next year.

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Equity

Why a Continued Rise in Gold Prices May Still Pan Out

One of the key drivers for gold is uncertainty. While all elections bring change, given the US results this year and subsequent market reaction, upcoming elections in Europe and elsewhere seem to have the potential for more upheaval than most.

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Equity

There’s More to India Than Just the Growth Story

The past few decades have brought about a shift in the types of jobs available in India—from low-paying agricultural jobs to higher-paying manufacturing and service jobs. Given the increase in disposable income, we believe consumer demand will drive company earnings growth as well as the Indian economy.

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Fixed Income

Why Markets Are More Cautious About the Next Potential Political Pitfall

Although the Italian constitutional referendum may seem parochial compared with the US election or the Brexit vote, it has the potential to bring further uncertainty to a European Union which is already struggling to digest the implications of Trump’s victory.

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Equity

Counting the US Election Implications on the Global Markets

We don’t anticipate that the new US government will be against free trade; instead, we anticipate an emphasis on ensuring fair trade. The electorate’s rebellion against globalization is not about trade per se, but rather a reflection of the focus on income and job growth.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

We do not believe a Trump presidency will materially alter the course of the US economy in the near term. Fundamentals ultimately drive longer-term performance in the fixed income markets, and in our view, these remain broadly supportive of a slow but steady rate of expansion.

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Fixed Income

Hasenstab: US Election Rhetoric vs. Realities

I think we learned a lot from the post-US election market reaction. We learned which markets are vulnerable, which were oversold, and by and large, see some of these market dislocations as an opportunity if we can sift through them.

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Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – US Election Special

For Asian markets trading Wednesday morning, we felt it was almost a replay of the Brexit tape—initial complacency made a hard turn into the realisation that an upset was imminent.

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Perspectives

America Decides: A Vote for Change

The next 100 days are critical for the newly elected officials in the United States, and we will continue to gain clarity on many policy items over that timeframe. There is no doubt that this election, and outcome has challenged the status quo and we could see even small issues become larger should impasses persist.