Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: August

As policymakers confront the limits of the monetary approach, conversations have increasingly turned to a discussion of potential alternatives to combat slow growth. Looking forward, we think this dialogue will likely broaden to include more countries in the months to come.

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Fixed Income

Why Higher Interest Rates Could Draw Yield-Seekers to Leveraged Loans

We believe that having a possible deluge of perhaps unqualified borrowers flood the market will make fundamental and independent research even more important for potential investors in this asset class.

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Emerging Markets

Spotlight on Brazil

Brazil’s middle class has expressed a clear desire for greater transparency and for an economic policy framework that can bring back robust growth in living standards. We believe this will act as a powerful incentive for Brazil’s policymakers to push forward with structural reforms, including improvements to the business environment.

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Perspectives

Thin Slicing the Markets: Where’s the Deleveraging?

It appears the majority of countries have not really deflated their debt bubbles at all since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009—indeed many have, in fact, added to their burden.

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Equity

Three Things Markets Have Shown Us Since the Brexit Vote

I think there’s good reason to believe that, given time, markets will get through this period of uncertainty and volatility. It may take some years, but through that, UK companies should still be trading with Europe and it should be, to some extent, business as usual.

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Fixed Income

What Next for Europe and the UK as an Italian Referendum Looms?

We think government stability, a weaker currency and accommodative central bank should help minimise the economic repercussions of Brexit.

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Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities

Perhaps the most important step that emerging markets have taken to reduce their vulnerability to financial crises is the remarkable deepening of domestic financial markets over the past decade. In many countries, the development of a reliable domestic investor base has benefited from the rise of a broad middle class.

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Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: July

In terms of monetary policy, we had expected the BOE to move into easing mode, though it chose not to do so at its July meeting, but we think the ECB will try to gauge the impact of the UK result, rather than rush to expand or extend its current program of bond purchases.

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Alternatives

What an (Economic) Drag It Is Getting Old

The world is getting older (much older in some geographies), and to us this is without question becoming a meaningful drag on economic growth—one that will likely persist into the future.

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Fixed Income

Brexit: “I Have Confidence in Confidence Alone”

I do think we’re at a most extraordinary valuation metric across many bond markets that again goes further than just any possible impact on the United Kingdom. For Europe, this situation amplifies the negative growth shock.

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Equity

Brexit: Serious Consequences, but “Not the End of the World”

In the end, any initial success for Brexit will likely depend on whether negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU are amicable or acrimonious.

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Perspectives

A Global Macro View of Brexit Implications

I think it’s important to break the UK Brexit referendum vote into two components: the first being the permanent effects it will likely have on the United Kingdom, Europe and the global economy; and the second being the more temporary factors.