Beyond Bulls & Bears

Card image cap
Perspectives

Thin Slicing the Markets: Where’s the Deleveraging?

It appears the majority of countries have not really deflated their debt bubbles at all since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009—indeed many have, in fact, added to their burden.

Card image cap
Equity

Three Things Markets Have Shown Us Since the Brexit Vote

I think there’s good reason to believe that, given time, markets will get through this period of uncertainty and volatility. It may take some years, but through that, UK companies should still be trading with Europe and it should be, to some extent, business as usual.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

What Next for Europe and the UK as an Italian Referendum Looms?

We think government stability, a weaker currency and accommodative central bank should help minimise the economic repercussions of Brexit.

Card image cap
Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities

Perhaps the most important step that emerging markets have taken to reduce their vulnerability to financial crises is the remarkable deepening of domestic financial markets over the past decade. In many countries, the development of a reliable domestic investor base has benefited from the rise of a broad middle class.

Card image cap
Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: July

In terms of monetary policy, we had expected the BOE to move into easing mode, though it chose not to do so at its July meeting, but we think the ECB will try to gauge the impact of the UK result, rather than rush to expand or extend its current program of bond purchases.

Card image cap
Alternatives

What an (Economic) Drag It Is Getting Old

The world is getting older (much older in some geographies), and to us this is without question becoming a meaningful drag on economic growth—one that will likely persist into the future.

Card image cap
Fixed Income

Brexit: “I Have Confidence in Confidence Alone”

I do think we’re at a most extraordinary valuation metric across many bond markets that again goes further than just any possible impact on the United Kingdom. For Europe, this situation amplifies the negative growth shock.

Card image cap
Equity

Brexit: Serious Consequences, but “Not the End of the World”

In the end, any initial success for Brexit will likely depend on whether negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU are amicable or acrimonious.

Card image cap
Perspectives

A Global Macro View of Brexit Implications

I think it’s important to break the UK Brexit referendum vote into two components: the first being the permanent effects it will likely have on the United Kingdom, Europe and the global economy; and the second being the more temporary factors.

Card image cap
Equity

Brexit: How Quickly May the Surprise Wear Off?

Our view is it’s important to focus on the fundamentals of individual companies. We think it’s a stock-picker’s market, and there may be some attractive value opportunities opening up, although they may close rather rapidly.

Card image cap
Equity

The Post-Brexit Irrationality of Markets

Investors are now mulling over what this decision might mean for the UK economy and that of Europe as a whole. Without question, this decision creates uncertainty because there is no blueprint for a country to leave the EU.

Card image cap
Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe: Brexit Special

It is anticipated that the UK will likely see a hit to growth in the short- and medium-term, with an increased risk of a technical recession, not helped by the profound uncertainty as to the prospects of this political contagion.