Beyond Bulls & Bears

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?
Fixed Income

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?

There has been a lot of talk this year about the flattening of the US yield curve—which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. Our senior investment leaders make a case that the “predictive power” of the yield curve when it comes to the US economy may not really be so predictive this time around.

Fed Full Steam Ahead
Fixed Income

Fed Full Steam Ahead

The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short-term interest rate for the third time this year, which was no surprise to market participants. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his take on the Fed’s “normalisation” path in light of what he sees as an overall positive US economic backdrop.

Global Investment Outlook: How Much Further Can Global Growth Fly?
Perspectives

Global Investment Outlook: How Much Further Can Global Growth Fly?

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group CIO Chris Molumphy and our Head of Equities Stephen Dover weigh in on whether synchronised global growth can continue, why worries about trade wars may be overblown and why opportunities for investors may be more idiosyncratic or divergent moving forward.

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation and Volatility
Multi-Asset

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation and Volatility

Global growth has been accelerating, but there are a few potential headwinds that could cause it to stall. Three of our senior investment leaders—Ed Perks, Chris Molumphy and Stephen Dover—recently participated in a panel discussion on the potential impact of trade tensions, inflation and other issues on their radar.

Will the Roar of Market Tensions Tame Global Growth?
Multi-Asset

Will the Roar of Market Tensions Tame Global Growth?

The first quarter of 2018 started out like a lamb but went out like a lion as long-dormant volatility began to roar. Issues like inflation fears, trade tensions and geopolitical risks contributed to market turbulence, leaving many investors wondering whether these issues will put a damper on global growth—and end the US market’s nine-year bull run. Three of Franklin Templeton’s senior investment leaders—Stephen Dover, Christopher Molumphy and Ed Perks—weigh in.

Fed Remains in Tightening Mode in March
Fixed Income

Fed Remains in Tightening Mode in March

The US Federal Reserve remained in tightening mode at its March monetary policy meeting, raising its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time since December 2015. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his take on the market implications—and why he feels it’s more important for investors to focus on the US economy’s (healthy) fundamentals rather than the exact number of rate increases this year.

Global Investment Outlook 2018: Reflections on Growing Economies and Fading Stimulus
Perspectives

Global Investment Outlook 2018: Reflections on Growing Economies and Fading Stimulus

As markets shift away from the recovery era of monetary accommodation amid synchronised global growth, some investors may be wondering where potential opportunities can be found. We present a summary outlook for the year ahead from Franklin Templeton’s global macro, fixed income, equity and multi-asset investment teams.

Global Economic Perspective: December
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: December

“The pattern of a strong cyclical upturn in the global economy combined with subdued inflation looks set to continue for some time, in our view. Nevertheless, we believe increasing demand and a diminishing pool of labor are likely to create meaningful pricing pressures at some point.” - Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

Fed Delivers Another December Rate Hike
Fixed Income

Fed Delivers Another December Rate Hike

“It’s important to note that the United States is still historically in a very low interest-rate environment, and frankly, keeping rates close to zero for a prolonged period really isn’t healthy. In our view, this tightening cycle actually represents a normalising of rates.” - Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

Global Economic Perspective: November
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

"Investors’ perceptions about the intentions of central banks, rather than economic fundamentals, are likely to remain the central driver of fixed income markets. Uncertainty created by factors such as geopolitics may only serve to convince policymakers to maintain a looser monetary stance than might otherwise be expected by economic conditions." - Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive
Fixed Income

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive

“The markets should take some comfort in Powell, as he is a current Fed governor and more or less represents the current state of affairs, business as usual. He has worked alongside Yellen since 2012, and they are philosophically alike (dovish bent).” Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

Global Economic Perspective: October
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: October

In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group discusses the state of the US economy and monetary policy implications, the fallout from the German elections and impact of the Catalonia crisis in Spain.