Beyond Bulls & Bears

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?
Fixed Income

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?

In light of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut, our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai takes a look at how US central bank thinking seems to have changed, and whether there’s a risk of having interest rates too close to zero. She argues deflation risks are overblown and looser monetary policy will lead to increased financial market distortions.

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?
Fixed Income

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab recently shared his perspective on investing at FundForum International 2019 in Copenhagen. He outlines why he thinks many investors are too complacent today, leading to some “dangerous” risk-taking. He also cautions why he thinks the next decade won’t be like the last for investors.

Revisiting Corporate Credit amidst Market Volatility
Multi-Asset

Revisiting Corporate Credit amidst Market Volatility

“We are seeing firsthand how thriving corporate profitability has supported select corporate bonds at the fundamental level, seemingly in defiance of more aggressive US Federal Reserve policy and political and geopolitical challenges.” – Ed Perks, CIO of Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation and Volatility
Multi-Asset

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation and Volatility

Global growth has been accelerating, but there are a few potential headwinds that could cause it to stall. Three of our senior investment leaders—Ed Perks, Chris Molumphy and Stephen Dover—recently participated in a panel discussion on the potential impact of trade tensions, inflation and other issues on their radar.

Will the Roar of Market Tensions Tame Global Growth?
Multi-Asset

Will the Roar of Market Tensions Tame Global Growth?

The first quarter of 2018 started out like a lamb but went out like a lion as long-dormant volatility began to roar. Issues like inflation fears, trade tensions and geopolitical risks contributed to market turbulence, leaving many investors wondering whether these issues will put a damper on global growth—and end the US market’s nine-year bull run. Three of Franklin Templeton’s senior investment leaders—Stephen Dover, Christopher Molumphy and Ed Perks—weigh in.

US 10-Year Treasury Crosses 3%: Much Ado About Nothing?
Fixed Income

US 10-Year Treasury Crosses 3%: Much Ado About Nothing?

On April 24, the US 10-year Treasury yield crossed the 3% threshold for the first time in four years, prompting much discussion about the potential implications for the US economy. But to reference a famous Shakespeare play, is all the media focus much ado about nothing? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Michael Materasso says investors shouldn’t fret too much about the number.

Fed Remains in Tightening Mode in March
Fixed Income

Fed Remains in Tightening Mode in March

The US Federal Reserve remained in tightening mode at its March monetary policy meeting, raising its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time since December 2015. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his take on the market implications—and why he feels it’s more important for investors to focus on the US economy’s (healthy) fundamentals rather than the exact number of rate increases this year.

The Fed’s Long Unwinding Road
Fixed Income

The Fed’s Long Unwinding Road

“The multi-year massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet has had a recognized powerful effect on asset markets—lowering yields and flattening the yield curve. Yet investors now seem to expect that the reverse process will have little impact, if any. We disagree.” - Michael Hasenstab, Templeton Global Macro

Continued Euro Strength Draws A Long Road Ahead for the ECB
Multi-Asset

Continued Euro Strength Draws A Long Road Ahead for the ECB

“In our view, we think the ECB would prefer to avoid any major appreciation of the euro, particularly while inflation is still running below the 2% target. The question therefore is whether the ECB can do anything to avoid the euro’s rise.” Matthias Hoppe, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions.

Why ECB Tapering Expectations May Be Premature
Multi-Asset

Why ECB Tapering Expectations May Be Premature

“Financial markets across Europe seem to have taken upbeat comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi late last month as evidence that the end may be in sight for accommodative monetary policy in the region. Our view is more nuanced.” Matthias Hoppe, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions.

How Rising Inflation Could Ride to the Rescue of Eurozone Earnings
Perspectives

How Rising Inflation Could Ride to the Rescue of Eurozone Earnings

Recent experience suggests that equity markets in general have a problem pricing in political events and elections. However, we believe politics does not drive equity markets long term; rather, politics provides a short-term opportunity to take advantage of longer-term trends.

This Is Not 2008

This Is Not 2008

The risk aversion across emerging markets appears to have reached a maximum state of unwarranted pessimism, in our view, and we see a vast set of valuation opportunities amid the volatility.