Beyond Bulls & Bears

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination
Fixed Income

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination

Christine Lagarde may have emerged as a surprise candidate to take the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB), but David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, sees it as a positive choice. Here he explains why both her experience, and lack of it, could prove positive if she does secure the job. And he shares his conviction that, whoever is in charge, the ECB is likely to remain steadfast on its easing path.

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk
Perspectives

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk

Equity markets continued to march higher in the first half of 2019, despite trade uncertainties and recessionary fears. An abrupt change to a more dovish stance among central bankers has recently provided fresh tinder to the equity fire. But does a looser policy stance signal there are cracks in the global economy’s foundation? Our senior investment leaders share their views on investing in uncertain times and how their outlooks have changed from earlier this year. They weigh in on market divergence, whether there is simply too much focus on the US Federal Reserve, where they see pockets of opportunity and how they are looking to play defence.

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts
Fixed Income

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its June meeting; it also emphasised its data-driven approach to policy decisions but noted it believes the case for lower interest rates to be strengthening. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai offers her take on the meeting, and why the Fed might actually be exacerbating market volatility ahead.

Is the US Yield Curve Signalling a US Recession?
Fixed Income

Is the US Yield Curve Signalling a US Recession?

Although one part of the US yield curve has inverted this year, investment leaders from Franklin Templeton explain why they aren’t concerned about a US recession—at least not yet.

A Dovish Fed Rate Hike
Fixed Income

A Dovish Fed Rate Hike

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth time this year, but with critics starting to question the central bank’s actions, will it take a tightening pause in 2019? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group's Michael Materasso weighs in.

Finding Value among Stretched US Valuations, Market Dislocations
Equity

Finding Value among Stretched US Valuations, Market Dislocations

“Of all the different macroeconomic and political factors that have been on investors’ minds over the last few months, we think interest rates are likely to be the most important. As we continue to see central banks reduce quantitative easing and move toward interest-rate normalisation in the major regions of the world, we are going to continue to focus on the dislocations that this may cause for currencies, equity markets and valuations.” - Templeton Global Equity Group

Fed Full Steam Ahead
Fixed Income

Fed Full Steam Ahead

The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short-term interest rate for the third time this year, which was no surprise to market participants. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his take on the Fed’s “normalisation” path in light of what he sees as an overall positive US economic backdrop.

ECB Meeting: Fresh Clarity, But Let’s Not Get Ahead of Ourselves
Fixed Income

ECB Meeting: Fresh Clarity, But Let’s Not Get Ahead of Ourselves

David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, gives his take on the ECB meeting and explains why he’s still not expecting a eurozone interest-rate hike before 2020.

Fed Gives US Interest Rates Another Bump in June
Fixed Income

Fed Gives US Interest Rates Another Bump in June

The US Federal Reserve continued its tightening path at its June policy meeting, raising its benchmark interest rate for the second time this year and seventh time since December 2015. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers us a snapshot of the US monetary policy landscape in the wake of the meeting.

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation and Volatility
Multi-Asset

Talking Trade Tensions, Inflation and Volatility

Global growth has been accelerating, but there are a few potential headwinds that could cause it to stall. Three of our senior investment leaders—Ed Perks, Chris Molumphy and Stephen Dover—recently participated in a panel discussion on the potential impact of trade tensions, inflation and other issues on their radar.

US 10-Year Treasury Crosses 3%: Much Ado About Nothing?
Fixed Income

US 10-Year Treasury Crosses 3%: Much Ado About Nothing?

On April 24, the US 10-year Treasury yield crossed the 3% threshold for the first time in four years, prompting much discussion about the potential implications for the US economy. But to reference a famous Shakespeare play, is all the media focus much ado about nothing? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Michael Materasso says investors shouldn’t fret too much about the number.

Will 2018 be a Banner Year for US Bank Stocks?
Equity

Will 2018 be a Banner Year for US Bank Stocks?

“In our view, select large-capitalisation US banks are likely to benefit from a growing US economy, higher interest rates and a less-restrictive regulatory environment. As a result, we think they have room to increase dividends and stock buybacks as earnings improve and capital is freed up.” – Matt Quinlan, Franklin Equity Group