Beyond Bulls & Bears

Global Economic Perspective: October
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: October

In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, our Fixed Income Group discusses whether optimism about the US economy is justified, and whether Italy’s budget talks could lead to looser fiscal policy elsewhere in the eurozone.

Italy’s Inflection Point as It Prepares to Unveil Spending Plans
Fixed Income

Italy’s Inflection Point as It Prepares to Unveil Spending Plans

Controversial spending plans outlined by Italy’s populist government caused consternation among investors at the beginning of October. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s head of European Fixed Income, considers how the coalition government’s growing popularity could influence the European Union’s response. And he explores the implications for the wider eurozone.

Three Developments in Europe You May Have Missed over the Summer—and One You Didn’t
Fixed Income

Three Developments in Europe You May Have Missed over the Summer—and One You Didn’t

David Zahn, head of European fixed income, on why he thinks core European bond yields are unrealistically low, the impact of Japan’s “stealth taper”, and the apparent leadership vacuum at the heart of Europe. Plus why the lack of Brexit progress should be a concern for all EU member states.

Italian Politics + US Trade Tariffs = Market Turmoil
Equity

Italian Politics + US Trade Tariffs = Market Turmoil

There seems to be no shortage of market-moving events of late, and no shortage of market volatility. In recent days, oil has hit a four-year high, Italy has been thrust into the spotlight amid a political crisis and trade-war fears between the United States and several of its key allies have again flared up after US President Donald Trump’s administration slapped them with tariffs. Katrina Dudley, portfolio manager and research analyst with Franklin Mutual Series, weighs in on it all.

Why Markets Are More Cautious About the Next Potential Political Pitfall
Fixed Income

Why Markets Are More Cautious About the Next Potential Political Pitfall

Although the Italian constitutional referendum may seem parochial compared with the US election or the Brexit vote, it has the potential to bring further uncertainty to a European Union which is already struggling to digest the implications of Trump’s victory.

US Election Implications for Europe: What Many Observers Are Missing
Fixed Income

US Election Implications for Europe: What Many Observers Are Missing

It’s fair to say that global referendums held recently have not proved terribly successful for their organisers. Whether that unhappy tradition continues with the Italian referendum on constitutional reform scheduled to be held on December 4 remains to be seen.

What Next for Europe and the UK as an Italian Referendum Looms?
Fixed Income

What Next for Europe and the UK as an Italian Referendum Looms?

We think government stability, a weaker currency and accommodative central bank should help minimise the economic repercussions of Brexit.

A New Year’s Vantage Point: Michael Hasenstab

A New Year’s Vantage Point: Michael Hasenstab