Beyond Bulls & Bears

Trade War: The Second Front
Equity

Trade War: The Second Front

“In our view, both the China and Mexico trade wars could be long-drawn affairs, as both fronts (jobs/immigration) cater to President Trump’s voter base, and the president has bipartisan support for the one with China.” – Stephen Dover, Head of Equities

Cutting through the Noise: Trump, Trade and Twitter
Multi-Asset

Cutting through the Noise: Trump, Trade and Twitter

“Could Trump’s words have a long-term impact on global stock markets? At the moment, the leading economic indicators, especially in the United States, continue to point to robust growth.” – Matthias Hoppe, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions.

Hasenstab: How AMLO and Mexico Can Avoid a Populist Fate
Fixed Income

Hasenstab: How AMLO and Mexico Can Avoid a Populist Fate

“While Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has shown some populist impulses, such as expanding pension benefits or broadly handing out scholarships, his team appears aware of the pitfalls that often await governments that disrupt confidence in their country’s financial markets.” - Michael Hasenstab

Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities
Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities

Perhaps the most important step that emerging markets have taken to reduce their vulnerability to financial crises is the remarkable deepening of domestic financial markets over the past decade. In many countries, the development of a reliable domestic investor base has benefited from the rise of a broad middle class.

Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities
Emerging Markets

Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities

From a labor market perspective, we think it is hard to justify maintaining interest rates at zero or to pursue a negative-interest rate policy in the United States. We would argue the Fed should be raising rates sooner rather than later to avoid losing credibility.