Beyond Bulls & Bears

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?
Fixed Income

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?

In light of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut, our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai takes a look at how US central bank thinking seems to have changed, and whether there’s a risk of having interest rates too close to zero. She argues deflation risks are overblown and looser monetary policy will lead to increased financial market distortions.

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice
Fixed Income

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time in 11 years in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment” to sustain the US economic expansion. Powell appeared to struggle to reconcile his admission the US economy is strong with this decision, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She shares her thoughts on the July policy meeting and the potential market implications.

Four Reasons Why Gold Prices Have Been Moving Higher
Equity

Four Reasons Why Gold Prices Have Been Moving Higher

“In our view, the current gold rally is an opportunity for gold-mining companies to show how much cash they can generate in slightly better gold markets.” - Steve Land

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues in earnest, with releases likely to drive the larger market moves. It’s also another busy week for central banks, as we hear from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday.

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination
Fixed Income

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination

Christine Lagarde may have emerged as a surprise candidate to take the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB), but David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, sees it as a positive choice. Here he explains why both her experience, and lack of it, could prove positive if she does secure the job. And he shares his conviction that, whoever is in charge, the ECB is likely to remain steadfast on its easing path.

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk
Perspectives

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk

Equity markets continued to march higher in the first half of 2019, despite trade uncertainties and recessionary fears. An abrupt change to a more dovish stance among central bankers has recently provided fresh tinder to the equity fire. But does a looser policy stance signal there are cracks in the global economy’s foundation? Our senior investment leaders share their views on investing in uncertain times and how their outlooks have changed from earlier this year. They weigh in on market divergence, whether there is simply too much focus on the US Federal Reserve, where they see pockets of opportunity and how they are looking to play defence.

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?
Fixed Income

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab recently shared his perspective on investing at FundForum International 2019 in Copenhagen. He outlines why he thinks many investors are too complacent today, leading to some “dangerous” risk-taking. He also cautions why he thinks the next decade won’t be like the last for investors.

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts
Fixed Income

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its June meeting; it also emphasised its data-driven approach to policy decisions but noted it believes the case for lower interest rates to be strengthening. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai offers her take on the meeting, and why the Fed might actually be exacerbating market volatility ahead.

ECB Acts to Reassert Its Inflation-Targeting Role
Fixed Income

ECB Acts to Reassert Its Inflation-Targeting Role

Many observers had low expectations ahead of this week’s European Central Bank (ECB) governing council meeting. But as David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Head of European Fixed Income, explains, the decisions made at the meeting have some intriguing implications and show the extent of the bank’s determination to achieve its inflation target.

PODCAST: Market Resilience: Strength in Numbers
Perspectives

PODCAST: Market Resilience: Strength in Numbers

Concerns about where the financial markets are heading are at the forefront of many investors’ minds. The risks of a US or global recession this year continue to persist amid slowing global growth, trade tensions and worries about potential geopolitical shocks. Our senior investment leaders see a different story unfolding. In this roundtable discussion, they outline why they think some market observers are misguided and where they see opportunities today.

On My Mind: Modern Magical Thinking
Alternatives

On My Mind: Modern Magical Thinking

In economic (and political) circles, “Modern Monetary Theory” has gotten some buzz of late. What does it mean—and does it have any merit? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai thinks it’s not only potentially dangerous, but offers intellectual fuel for populism.

On My Mind: The Fed Will Hike Again—Because It Can
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed Will Hike Again—Because It Can

While the financial markets seem to be betting on a very extended pause in the US Federal Reserve’s multiyear tightening cycle, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai has another idea. Here, she makes the case that interest-rate hikes may still be on the table this year.