Beyond Bulls & Bears

Does Macron’s EU Reform Agenda Need German Support?
Perspectives

Does Macron’s EU Reform Agenda Need German Support?

"Without an eager partner in Germany, I think Macron will face challenges implementing his more radical eurozone reforms. Although there is broad support for unification in the wake of last year’s Brexit vote, some of the EU’s Eastern European partners are using all the brakes to prevent unification. I see it as a long road to reach that goal.” – Philippe Brugere-Trelat, Franklin Mutual Series

What’s Next for Europe as Merkel Is Re-elected
Perspectives

What’s Next for Europe as Merkel Is Re-elected

"We think the level of support for AfD does reflect a protest vote from people who have been unhappy with the direction things have been going in Germany. That could have an influence on Merkel’s approach as she looks past her election victory.” - David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

Is France on the Cusp of a Thatcher Moment?
Equity

Is France on the Cusp of a Thatcher Moment?

French President Emmanuel Macron is preparing to take on France’s powerful unions as he attempts to overhaul the country’s labour code. Here, Philippe Brugere-Trelat, Franklin Mutual Series executive vice president, explains why a Macron victory on this front could open up opportunities for investing in French equities.

Macron at 100 Days: New French President Faces Busy Autumn
Equity

Macron at 100 Days: New French President Faces Busy Autumn

“Although polls have shown that Macron’s approval ratings have fallen since the election, I don’t see this drop as cause for concern. The ebbs and flows of popular polls are natural, in my opinion, following the giant wave of hope that swept Macron into office. That hope is now meeting the cold light of reality.”– Philippe Brugere-Trelat, Executive Vice President, Franklin Mutual Series

Europe’s Main Event: Economics vs. Politics
Equity

Europe’s Main Event: Economics vs. Politics

I believe the concerns (US President Donald) Trump has regarding trade with Mexico and China would not apply to Europe. Europe is not a low-cost area, not only where wages are concerned, but also where taxes are concerned.

Brexit: Serious Consequences, but “Not the End of the World”
Equity

Brexit: Serious Consequences, but “Not the End of the World”

In the end, any initial success for Brexit will likely depend on whether negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU are amicable or acrimonious.

On Brexit, Banks and Bargains
Equity

On Brexit, Banks and Bargains

I believe the results of the June 23 referendum will likely mirror those of the 2014 vote on Scottish independence: Once people are in the voting booth, I believe they will sober up and decide to stick with the status quo.

Europe: Back to Business

Europe: Back to Business

The main, very positive consequence of the Greek rescue agreement—even if nobody in Greece or in the eurozone at large seems to like it—is that Greece appears to be staying in the eurozone and the construct has been safeguarded.

Brexit Signs: Envisioning an EU Without the UK

Brexit Signs: Envisioning an EU Without the UK

In my view, the big risk for the United Kingdom of exiting the EU would be marginalisation, not just economically, not just financially but also politically … I would even go so far as to suggest that the status of the United Kingdom as a large world financial centre could be at risk if it were to leave the EU.

Meet the Manager: Philippe Brugere-Trelat

Meet the Manager: Philippe Brugere-Trelat

The wonderful thing about the mutual fund business—the investing business—is that it’s never the same. You learn something new every day.

Investment Outlook 2015: Five Reasons Why the Eurozone May Surprise Naysayers

Investment Outlook 2015: Five Reasons Why the Eurozone May Surprise Naysayers

A consensus is growing among market watchers that the euro will likely weaken further versus the US dollar in 2015. I usually don't like to agree with the consensus, but this time, I have to admit that the momentum for the euro appears to be downward.

Will the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Chill Europe’s Recovery?

Will the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Chill Europe’s Recovery?

While the situation in Ukraine currently looks troubling, I do not believe Russia can afford a prolonged crisis. The Russian economy could already be in recession or heading toward one, and the lost production, supply shortages and higher consumer prices that Russians are facing could erode President Putin’s support over time.