Beyond Bulls & Bears

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice
Fixed Income

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time in 11 years in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment” to sustain the US economic expansion. Powell appeared to struggle to reconcile his admission the US economy is strong with this decision, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She shares her thoughts on the July policy meeting and the potential market implications.

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk
Perspectives

PODCAST: Midyear Outlook: Reining in Risk

Equity markets continued to march higher in the first half of 2019, despite trade uncertainties and recessionary fears. An abrupt change to a more dovish stance among central bankers has recently provided fresh tinder to the equity fire. But does a looser policy stance signal there are cracks in the global economy’s foundation? Our senior investment leaders share their views on investing in uncertain times and how their outlooks have changed from earlier this year. They weigh in on market divergence, whether there is simply too much focus on the US Federal Reserve, where they see pockets of opportunity and how they are looking to play defence.

The Real Risk in Today’s Global Markets
Perspectives

The Real Risk in Today’s Global Markets

While some observers might worry that the current global economic cycle is ending, Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab characterises the slowing growth we are experiencing as a cyclical slowdown, not the end of the cycle. He is more concerned with the political vulnerabilities he’s seeing in the global economy today, and says the world’s increasing fragmentation due to populist policies is a major concern.

K2 Advisors: It’s the End of the Fed’s World as We Know It
Alternatives

K2 Advisors: It’s the End of the Fed’s World as We Know It

Market volatility returned with a vengeance towards the end of 2018, with numerous uncertainties invoking memories of the Great Recession. K2 Advisors’ Robert Christian and Brooks Ritchey believe the most recent turmoil has been a function of some asset-price distortions stemming from central bank actions. They explain what it all means for investors—and for hedge-fund vehicles in particular.

Fed Full Steam Ahead
Fixed Income

Fed Full Steam Ahead

The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short-term interest rate for the third time this year, which was no surprise to market participants. Chris Molumphy, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, offers his take on the Fed’s “normalisation” path in light of what he sees as an overall positive US economic backdrop.

Then and Now: Mortgage-Backed Securities Post-Financial Crisis
Fixed Income

Then and Now: Mortgage-Backed Securities Post-Financial Crisis

“As the Fed stops buying, we expect that will leave a greater supply of mortgage-backed securities for the market to absorb. Now, the question is, who’s going to be the marginal buyer of MBS?” – Paul Varunok, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

Will 2018 be a Banner Year for US Bank Stocks?
Equity

Will 2018 be a Banner Year for US Bank Stocks?

“In our view, select large-capitalisation US banks are likely to benefit from a growing US economy, higher interest rates and a less-restrictive regulatory environment. As a result, we think they have room to increase dividends and stock buybacks as earnings improve and capital is freed up.” – Matt Quinlan, Franklin Equity Group

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

We’ve seen some dramatic headlines in the wake of last Friday's US equity selloff, but it’s important to remember that equities have had an incredible run over the past year. In relative terms, we consider this pullback to be reasonably small. - Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk Team

Global Economic Perspective: March
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: March

Even though confidence among US businesses and consumers has been lifted by the advent of a new administration, the question of whether this buoyant mood is likely to translate into a significant pickup in US economic growth remains unanswered, in our view.