Beyond Bulls & Bears

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Franklin Templeton's Notes from the Trading Desk offers an overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. This week the team looks at the latest Brexit developments, dovish Fed meeting minutes and progress (or lack thereof) on trade issues.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equities’ performance last week contributed to their strongest quarter since 2010. The rally comes on the back of what was a weighty selloff for global equities into year-end last year.  Renewed hopes that a trade deal between the United States and China will eventually be struck drove the move higher, along with a more dovish attitude from the US Federal Reserve which alleviated some pressure on markets. US and Chinese equities have been at the forefront of this strength.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Positive catalysts helped European equities edge higher throughout last week. These included the hopes of an easing in global trade-war tensions and political progress in Italy. Nevertheless, concerns over Brexit and some disappointing data from Europe and China continue to cast a dark shadow.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

The last few of days in October brought some welcome respite for equity markets thanks to month-end positioning, robust corporate earnings and better tone around US/China trade. Markets were in positive territory last week across the board.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

“If the United Kingdom fails to reach a deal or pass it through Parliament, the prospect of a fresh general election is a very real likelihood, in our view, bringing with it much uncertainty.” Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

“It seems likely the Five Star Movement will have a major part to play in Italian policy going forward. Coalition governments are commonplace in Italy and a single party has not won an outright majority since the Second World War.”- Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team, March 5, 2018.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

We’ve seen some dramatic headlines in the wake of last Friday's US equity selloff, but it’s important to remember that equities have had an incredible run over the past year. In relative terms, we consider this pullback to be reasonably small. - Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk Team

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

"Central bank commentary has been driving headlines throughout the second quarter, from our perspective, and last week was no exception as several monetary policymakers in different jurisdictions gave a hawkish tilt to speeches, fuelling speculation that the period of ultra-accommodative monetary policy could be approaching an end.” - Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Perspectives

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Given the improving macroeconomic data we have seen from the eurozone of late, there was a good deal of scrutiny on ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference to see if he would step back from his dovish stance. Draghi appeared keen to be careful not to unsettle markets with excessively hawkish rhetoric.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The main event of this week’s macro calendar will be the US nonfarm payroll employment data on Friday (May 6). The scrutiny on US data is immense, with so much focus on when the Fed will next lift interest rates.