Beyond Bulls & Bears

Fixed Income

Why European Investors Might Consider Fixed Maturity Investing

Against a background of sustained low interest rates, the search for yield is leading some investors to cast their nets a little wider. David Zahn, Head of European Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton, looks at one idea that seems to be sparking interest: fixed maturity investing.

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The search for yield presents European investors with a conundrum at the moment.

Interest rates in the eurozone remain stubbornly low and while rates in other parts of the world, including the United States, have started rising from historic lows, hedging costs can make that an expensive option.

European investors pay a significant premium to hedge dollar assets back to euros. That can quickly eat away at any return advantage that US assets might offer compared with European assets.

Little Sign of the Interest-Rate Tide Changing Soon

The latest figures suggest economic growth in the eurozone is slowing. On top of that, the region faces a series of political headwinds. For example, we expect Brexit to impact the wider region more deeply than some are predicting.

Furthermore, European Parliament elections are due to take place in May, bringing the very real prospect of populist parties from the extreme left and right of the political spectrum making gains.

All things considered, we reckon the prospect of eurozone interest rates starting to rise imminently has receded. But, like all investors, we hope and expect interest rates will rise eventually.

Our analysis suggests the European Central Bank (ECB) likely won’t start hiking rates until 2021.

Against this background, we’re seeing a resurgence of interest in so-called “buy-and-hold,” or fixed maturity investment strategies.

Limiting Duration Risk

Although growth has been slowing down in the eurozone, it still appears healthy from our point of view, and we are not worried about the risk of a recession in the region. Domestic demand, as well as consumer and business confidence, appear to still be strong.

While we’re sceptical that eurozone interest rates will rise soon, we recognise that central bankers will act eventually, and that the next movement is likely to be a rate hike.

So for many investors, duration risk—in other words exposure to changing interest rates—remains a prominent concern.

A fixed maturity investment can reduce that exposure. An investor holding bonds that mature in line with his or her investment horizon likely will not care what happens to interest rates in the meantime, as long as they are being paid their coupon.

Re-emergence of Credit as an Attractive Consideration

The challenge, therefore, is seeking out an appropriate coupon.

In the current sustained low-interest-rate environment, we think credit is emerging as an attractive asset class for investors seeking income. In recent months, both high-yield and investment-grade credit have sold off significantly.

The asset class rallied somewhat in January but still spreads remain much wider than they were in the middle of last year.

While corporate credit comes with a higher risk of defaults than sovereign debt, we feel investors are now getting better compensated for that risk. Furthermore, default rates are low at the moment, and we’d anticipate they should likely remain low for several years.

Still, we think it’s important to look at credit in a diversified manner and not to overly concentrate on individual corporate names.

And as ever we remain strong proponents of an active investment management approach. That should mean if the fundamentals of assets within the fixed maturity portfolio do deteriorate, action can be taken and potentially new assets with similar maturities swapped in.

The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline. Investments in lower-rated bonds include higher risk of default and loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments.

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