Beyond Bulls & Bears

What an (Economic) Drag It Is Getting Old
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What an (Economic) Drag It Is Getting Old

The world is getting older (much older in some geographies), and to us this is without question becoming a meaningful drag on economic growth—one that will likely persist into the future.

The Intangible Art of Operational Due Diligence
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The Intangible Art of Operational Due Diligence

The ‘artistic’ nature of operational due diligence (ODD) is a human exercise, and one that cannot be readily quantified and cataloged … The abstract or intangible qualities of a solid ODD program—wisdom, experience and judgment—cannot be overstated.

ZIRPs and NIRPs and Unintended Consequences
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ZIRPs and NIRPs and Unintended Consequences

There are countless examples in history, some more hubristic than others, in which man’s efforts to address a problem or control a system have resulted in miserable failure―regardless of best-laid plans or intentions.

An Alternative View on Volatility

An Alternative View on Volatility

Based on our current economic outlook, with financial markets still coming to terms with, among other issues, China’s slowing growth rate and uncertainty about global interest rates, we anticipate volatility will be around for some time—and may even escalate.

US Monetary Policy: It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again

US Monetary Policy: It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again

Is maintaining a zero interest rate policy in the United Sates today a good idea, or is not raising rates doing more harm than its intended good? I suppose that depends on perspective and opinion.

Shrugging Along

Shrugging Along

From our point of view, trying to predict market declines or rallies is not as important as preparing for incipient shocks smartly and strategically; it is about being vigilant.

Exporting the “Bacon Genie” and Other Reasons to Be Bullish

Exporting the “Bacon Genie” and Other Reasons to Be Bullish

The global economy is at a crossroad of sorts, facing a paradigm shift that is necessary for sustainable growth in the future. In our view, modifications in policy and consumer behavior will be requisite in both developed and emerging nations.

Greece: Stuck in the Middle

Greece: Stuck in the Middle

Opinion polls show that many Greek voters support Athens's tough negotiation tactics. But the polls also show that most Greeks want their country to remain in the eurozone—but to do so would require agreeing with the zone's austerity demands. I think this would be the definition of a pickle.

Complexity, Critical States and Tributaries of Uncertainty
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Complexity, Critical States and Tributaries of Uncertainty

We are always uncertain, and so we must always be prepared and sheltered appropriately for living in the uncertain world, investment portfolios notwithstanding.

2015 Investment Outlook: Reasons We Still Like Global Equities
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2015 Investment Outlook: Reasons We Still Like Global Equities

We continue to favor equities in emerging Asia over emerging Latin America due to what we view as stronger corporate fundamentals and attractive valuations.

Portfolio Diversification in the Quantum Age
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Portfolio Diversification in the Quantum Age

What happens when markets approach extreme environments like that experienced in 2008 (or October 2014 for that matter)? In these instances it is quite clear that the traditional rules/laws of portfolio diversification do not work as well as intended.

QE, Parallel Universes and the Problem With Economic Growth
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QE, Parallel Universes and the Problem With Economic Growth

While monetary weapons can be a good first step to remedying an economic crisis, they are clearly not enough on a standalone basis to return an economy to stability and growth. Monetary medicine cannot heal fiscal ailments in the areas of budgeting, regulation, taxation and related policies.