Beyond Bulls & Bears

Global Economic Perspective: October
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: October

While heartened by the bounce in oil prices after the multi-decade lows reached early in the year, any significant further rally in energy prices would seem to us to require a far more vibrant global economy. As the IMF’s (and the Fed’s) relatively subdued outlooks make clear, it is hard to anticipate such a scenario occurring anytime soon.

Global Economic Perspective: September
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: September

The BOJ provides perhaps one of the most extreme examples of the repression of interest rates by central banks. At some point, Japan—along with other countries that have embarked on such untested monetary policies—may be forced to address the distortions it has imposed upon its markets.

Global Economic Perspective: August
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: August

As policymakers confront the limits of the monetary approach, conversations have increasingly turned to a discussion of potential alternatives to combat slow growth. Looking forward, we think this dialogue will likely broaden to include more countries in the months to come.

Global Economic Perspective: July
Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: July

In terms of monetary policy, we had expected the BOE to move into easing mode, though it chose not to do so at its July meeting, but we think the ECB will try to gauge the impact of the UK result, rather than rush to expand or extend its current program of bond purchases.

Global Economic Perspective: June
Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: June

Our view is that the US economy remains on course to pick up over the rest of this year, despite May’s disappointing payroll report and the Fed’s subsequent decision at its June meeting to leave interest rates unchanged. We do not place too much importance on this single piece of data and believe the economy’s robust fundamentals are likely to fulfill the Fed’s criteria for tightening monetary policy fairly soon.

Global Economic Perspective: May
Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: May

The road toward the ECB’s target of 2% inflation will likely be long, but we maintain our belief that the central bank is currently pursuing all of the politically feasible policies at its disposal that can encourage a further revival of economic activity and help achieve that goal.

Global Economic Perspective: April

Global Economic Perspective: April

We have some apprehension about the more dovish stance taken by the US Federal Reserve, which in our view may place too great a focus on global factors, despite a relatively tight US labor market and some indications of a pickup in core inflation.

Global Economic Perspective: March

Global Economic Perspective: March

We regard the greater stability in commodity prices, along with a lessening of volatility in financial markets, as welcome, and believe it should provide a more stable platform for the global economy, where growth remains acceptable, if lower than desirable.

Global Economic Perspective: February

Global Economic Perspective: February

The impact of China’s rebalancing is likely to remain a headwind, particularly for countries that have relied on its appetite for raw materials. But this is likely to be counterbalanced by the continuation of the various accommodative monetary policies that are in place around the world.

Global Economic Perspective: January

Global Economic Perspective: January

Though the rest of the world may not be doing as well as the United States, we think global growth remains acceptable and do not anticipate a global recession or global deflation.

Global Economic Perspective: November

Global Economic Perspective: November

While China’s manufacturing sector—which drove China’s rise to its place as the world’s second-largest economy—has been losing steam, it is being supplanted by a domestic, consumer-led economy propelled by a rising middle class with growing income. Other Asian countries are on a similar trajectory.

Global Economic Perspective: October

Global Economic Perspective: October

Overall, while there are plenty of ‘problem children’ in the emerging-market space, there are undoubtedly assets and currencies being beaten down by broad-brush assessments of economic prospects that merit renewed attention.