Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Equity

UK Spring Budget: Out with a Whimper, Just as Hammond Hoped

The [UK] chancellor painted a becalmed picture of steady economic growth for the United Kingdom. Of course, that picture may be at odds with many people’s expectations, particularly given the likely Brexit negotiation process due to take place during that period.

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Equity

Union Budget 2017-18: Key Takeaways

In our view, the 2017-18 Union Budget struck a balance in regard to projected government spending—tackling the deficit, while supporting sector growth through public spending.

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Equity

Australian Equity Outlook: The China Connection

We believe the change of administration in the United States could well presage significant political and economic change. The most obvious risk to Australia is trade protectionism.

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Equity

Could the Rally in Global Equities Keep Rolling?

If a policy-driven boost to growth doesn’t materialize, the markets, which have moved on the possibility of real change, could reverse just as fast.

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Perspectives

How Rising Inflation Could Ride to the Rescue of Eurozone Earnings

Recent experience suggests that equity markets in general have a problem pricing in political events and elections. However, we believe politics does not drive equity markets long term; rather, politics provides a short-term opportunity to take advantage of longer-term trends.

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Equity

The Sectors Most Likely to Cheer US Tax Reform

It’s always tough to gauge the impact of policy shifts in isolation. However, we think broad tax reform combined with other fiscal stimulus measures, such as infrastructure spending and repatriation of foreign profits, can be very effective (at least in the short term) in providing a boost or acceleration in gross domestic product growth over the next several years.

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Equity

Europe’s Main Event: Economics vs. Politics

I believe the concerns (US President Donald) Trump has regarding trade with Mexico and China would not apply to Europe. Europe is not a low-cost area, not only where wages are concerned, but also where taxes are concerned.

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Fixed Income

European Bond Market: What Lies Beyond the Politics?

While politics may dominate the investment agenda in Europe and further afield, it won’t be the only theme for investors, in our view.

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Fixed Income

2017 MENA Outlook: A Quiet Economic Evolution

We’ve seen more happen to the GCC economies in the past 18 months than we’ve seen happen over the past 10 years. In our view, these structural reforms have fundamentally altered the fiscal landscape.

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Fixed Income

Australian Headwinds May Benefit Yield-Seeking Investors

Since the fundamental determinants of bond yields—economic activity and inflation—are expected to be muted this year, the recent rise in Australian government bond yields presents an opportunity for investors, especially in the short end of the bond curve.

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Equity

Is There Scope For Optimism in Europe in 2017?

We are confident that we could see a decent earnings recovery in sectors whose earnings have been depressed for a couple of years (financials, energy), while cyclical sectors overall should likely benefit from a stronger economy overall.

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Equity

Driving a Case for Convertibles in 2017

In our view, 2017 could be a year where the unique properties of convertibles become an important feature for investors' asset allocation.