Beyond Bulls & Bears

Food for Thought: February CPI continues to prove stubborn
Fixed Income

Food for Thought: February CPI continues to prove stubborn

Stubborn core and supercore inflation will mean that the Fed will want some more evidence that their preferred measures of inflation are moving sustainably lower according to Nikhil Mohan, Franklin Fixed Income economist. Read our latest views.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Just a little patience
Fixed Income

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Just a little patience

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists are seeing evidence of sticky inflation across the Group of Three (G3) nations. While central banks in the United States and eurozone are gauging when to embark on monetary easing, the Bank of Japan will likely hike in April. All three will continue to monitor wages (and their impact on services inflation) and the balance of risks to economic growth.

On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket

Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the January inflation print confirms that the “last mile” of disinflation may prove to be a lot harder than markets expect, and investors should brace for more volatility and a possible move of 10-year Treasury yields back in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?

Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the recent acceleration in productivity growth might prove durable, leading to higher potential returns on real investment and a higher equilibrium interest rate.

Meet the Manager: Lloyd Nemerever
Fixed Income

Meet the Manager: Lloyd Nemerever

Having a degree in mathematics and an interest in improving processes has led Lloyd Nemerever, Head of Municipal Bonds SMA Strategies, to a successful career in investment management. Find out about innovations in the municipal bond market space that Lloyd is excited about and get to know more about him in this Q&A.

Food for Thought: The Fed—We’ll get there when we get there!
Fixed Income

Food for Thought: The Fed—We’ll get there when we get there!

Instead of pivoting directly toward an easing bias, the Federal Open Market Committee opted for a wait-and-watch approach in January. Franklin Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan expects rate cuts to come, but not quite as soon as or as many as markets have been anticipating.

Quick Thoughts: Kicking the can down the road
Equity

Quick Thoughts: Kicking the can down the road

While interest rates were left unchanged at the January Fed meeting as expected, there were some interesting hints about future monetary policy. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, opines.

US economy: Ending 2023 on an unexpected high
Fixed Income

US economy: Ending 2023 on an unexpected high

US gross domestic product surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily led by US consumers and the government. Franklin Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan sees the growth mix remaining largely the same in 2024.

ECB in little rush to cut rates
Fixed Income

ECB in little rush to cut rates

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, without conveying any urgency to start cutting rates in the next few months. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, weighs in on the implications for investors—and why lengthening duration may make sense.

On My Mind: Catch me if you can—Markets outrun the Fed
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Catch me if you can—Markets outrun the Fed

The Federal Reserve has fueled market conviction that the good old days of extremely low interest rates and abundant liquidity are soon to return. Our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai sees this reaction as an excess of dovish enthusiasm that sets the stage for more volatility. She shares her latest insights on the policy outlook and the implications for investors.

2024 municipal bond market outlook: Increased optimism for the year ahead
Fixed Income

2024 municipal bond market outlook: Increased optimism for the year ahead

A year of significant monetary policy tightening is coming to a close, making Franklin Templeton Fixed Income optimistic about muni bonds in the year ahead. Get the team’s 2024 muni-bond outlook.

On My Mind: Miracle on 20th Street
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Miracle on 20th Street

Markets cheered a “dovish” December Federal Reserve meeting, seen as an early gift to investors. But has the battle against inflation been won? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai weighs in.