Beyond Bulls & Bears

Still No Roadmap to a Brexit Resolution as EU Offers Another Extension
Fixed Income

Still No Roadmap to a Brexit Resolution as EU Offers Another Extension

Brexit may have been delayed again. The European Union has offered to allow the United Kingdom more time to decide how it wants to leave. While the measure may prevent a no-deal Brexit in the short-term, our Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn thinks it may simply be saving up problems for the future.

A Long Brexit Delay Now Seems Likely, but to What End?
Equity

A Long Brexit Delay Now Seems Likely, but to What End?

Brexit negotiations are once again going to the wire. With no resolution in place and the clock ticking down, Sandy Nairn, chairman of Templeton Global Equity Group and CEO of Edinburgh Partners, looks at the possible outcomes. He explains why he thinks a long Brexit extension could be the most sensible option.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equities’ performance last week contributed to their strongest quarter since 2010. The rally comes on the back of what was a weighty selloff for global equities into year-end last year.  Renewed hopes that a trade deal between the United States and China will eventually be struck drove the move higher, along with a more dovish attitude from the US Federal Reserve which alleviated some pressure on markets. US and Chinese equities have been at the forefront of this strength.

Can the EU’s Extension Offer Really Break the Brexit Deadlock?
Fixed Income

Can the EU’s Extension Offer Really Break the Brexit Deadlock?

After a nail-biting few hours, European Union leaders have agreed to the UK government’s request to delay Brexit, albeit the extension is less than Theresa May had requested. But our Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn believes the decision does little more than reset the clock and he warns there is still a strong chance that the United Kingdom could still crash out without a deal.

MPs Say No to No Deal, But an Accidental Hard Brexit Remains a Possibility
Fixed Income

MPs Say No to No Deal, But an Accidental Hard Brexit Remains a Possibility

UK members of parliament have voted to reject a situation in which the United Kingdom crashes out of the European Union without a deal. But with only days until the official leave date, the options for a tidy resolution are limited. David Zahn explains why he expects the UK government now to seek an extension to the Brexit negotiations.

Have We Reached Maximum Brexit Pessimism Yet?
Equity

Have We Reached Maximum Brexit Pessimism Yet?

Newspaper headlines might suggest there’s little reason to cheer for UK equity investors right now. However, Colin Morton, vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin UK Equity team, believes the current despondent sentiment that pervades the United Kingdom could present some interesting opportunities to pick up a bargain. Just don’t ask him about catalysts for improvement.

Why We Think Most “Brexit Panaceas” Are Ill-Thought-Through or Unviable
Equity

Why We Think Most “Brexit Panaceas” Are Ill-Thought-Through or Unviable

“It is symptomatic of the level of debate that the options which tend to get offered as panaceas for Brexit are rarely thought-through or viable.” Sandy Nairn, Chairman of Templeton Global Equity Group and CEO of Edinburgh Partners

A Hard Brexit Would Remove Uncertainty for Markets
Fixed Income

A Hard Brexit Would Remove Uncertainty for Markets

"Two and a half years ago, with all the options for a negotiated Brexit on the table, a Hard Brexit seemed to be the worst-case scenario. Now, markets may feel that it’s preferable to bring an end to the uncertainty and accept the short-term pain." David Zahn, Head of European Fixed Income

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Equity markets continued their recovery last week as optimism around US/China trade talks and a continued dovish narrative from the US Federal Reserve eased investor nerves. In Europe, macro data continues to be lacklustre and the noise around Brexit is back to fever pitch. But European indices still benefitted from the more positive global perspective.

Why We’re Not Obsessing over the Brexit Effect
Equity

Why We’re Not Obsessing over the Brexit Effect

It’s approaching crunch time for Brexit. The resolution is far from clear, but Colin Morton, vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin UK Equity team, believes the time has come to start looking past the short-term effects of the United Kingdom’s divorce. He suggests investors should focus on factors that might influence their portfolios once the outcome has been decided.

Is it Time for Small-Cap Stocks to Shine?
Equity

Is it Time for Small-Cap Stocks to Shine?

“In our view, US small-cap stocks are currently among the most expensive in the world, especially in the technology and health care sectors. With valuations looking expensive to us in the United States amid rising interest rates, we aren’t finding as many compelling opportunities as we are in Europe and Asia outside of Japan.” - Franklin Equity Group’s Ed Lugo

Does a Brexit Resolution Require a New Referendum or a General Election?
Equity

Does a Brexit Resolution Require a New Referendum or a General Election?

Political infighting abounds in the United Kingdom as the clock ticks relentlessly towards the March 29 Brexit date. Amid entrenched positions on all sides, Sandy Nairn, Chairman of Templeton Global Equity Group and CEO of Edinburgh Partners, argues that only a fresh referendum or a general election can break the Brexit deadlock and examines some of the implications for investors.