Beyond Bulls & Bears

European QE: Has It Been Worth the Effort?

European QE: Has It Been Worth the Effort?

Now, we feel the time is right for a further shot in the arm. In our view, it’s not a question of whether the ECB will extend QE, it’s a question of when: Will the announcement come in October or December?

Global Economic Perspective: April

Global Economic Perspective: April

Given the example set by US equity markets after the Fed stepped in to buy government debt in two successive QE programs, investors appear convinced that the rally in European financial markets has considerably longer to run.

Global Economic Perspective: March

Global Economic Perspective: March

We think the US economy is currently in a kind of ‘goldilocks’ scenario, with positive economic growth and low inflation.

Global Economic Perspective: February

Global Economic Perspective: February

Unless we see further significant drops in oil prices from their current levels, we believe the impact on headline inflation will progressively fade.

Global Economic Perspective: January

Global Economic Perspective: January

There might be the risk of further geo-political instability involving countries like Russia, Iran and Iraq as a result of their declining macroeconomic prospects. However, we believe that while there are losers from the dramatic fall in oil prices of the past six months, the global economy as a whole should benefit from lower oil prices in the coming months.

Global Economic Perspective: December

Global Economic Perspective: December

The lower cost of oil should support economic growth by helping boost corporate earnings and, if it lasts, might lessen the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at anything more than a very gradual pace.

Global Economic Perspective: November

Global Economic Perspective: November

We continue to believe there is a possibility that US rate increases could come faster than the market has been forecasting until recently.

Global Economic Perspective: October

Global Economic Perspective: October

European leaders seem to be engaged in an increasingly shrill debate about the relative merits of short-term austerity aimed at medium-term gain versus the need to allow more fiscal slack in the short term to boost demand.

Reading Fed Tea Leaves

Reading Fed Tea Leaves

Clearly, inflation plays a large role in fixed income instruments. We see fairly benign inflation, albeit probably ticking up as the labor market improves. That said, we are probably not as optimistic as the Fed on the inflation front.

Global Economic Perspective: September

Global Economic Perspective: September

The global reach for perceived safety and for yield has been driving demand for long-dated Treasuries and seemingly trumping fundamentals. There also appears to be a widespread expectation that even after the Fed embarks on monetary policy normalization, rate increases are likely to be modest.

Global Economic Perspective: August

Global Economic Perspective: August

With the pick-up in the US economy leading to increased talk of policy normalization there, but monetary easing still the order of the day in the eurozone, we believe there could be some yield divergence between US Treasuries on the one hand and European (and Japanese) benchmark bonds on the other.

A Strengthening Case for European Bonds

A Strengthening Case for European Bonds

Although the pace of economic improvement in the eurozone is slow, there is at least some growth. We are optimistic about the prospects for fixed income investing in the region—perhaps more than many other areas of the world.