Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Latin America: The Rise and Fall of Populism

Sharp criticism of the North American Free Trade Agreement and of immigration from Mexico signaled a temptation for the United States to turn its back on Latin America. This would be damaging to the US economy, and especially ironic at a time when key Latin American economies are moving in the opposite direction, turning away from populist economic policies.

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Fixed Income

Hasenstab: US Election Rhetoric vs. Realities

I think we learned a lot from the post-US election market reaction. We learned which markets are vulnerable, which were oversold, and by and large, see some of these market dislocations as an opportunity if we can sift through them.

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Fixed Income

Snapshot View: Fed Remains on Hold

If the United States is actually experiencing a 'new normal' where growth remains lower long term, then the Fed risks fueling real or asset-price inflation by being too lax with monetary policy going forward.

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Alternatives

Politics, Policies and Market Resiliency

If there were two words to describe the situation the United States is in right now in terms of the economy and the markets, I would choose stable and resilient . . . Whatever the election outcome, I think it will prove to be something the markets will able to digest and ultimately move forward from.

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Emerging Markets

Spotlight on Brazil

Brazil’s middle class has expressed a clear desire for greater transparency and for an economic policy framework that can bring back robust growth in living standards. We believe this will act as a powerful incentive for Brazil’s policymakers to push forward with structural reforms, including improvements to the business environment.

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Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities

Perhaps the most important step that emerging markets have taken to reduce their vulnerability to financial crises is the remarkable deepening of domestic financial markets over the past decade. In many countries, the development of a reliable domestic investor base has benefited from the rise of a broad middle class.

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Perspectives

A Global Macro View of Brexit Implications

I think it’s important to break the UK Brexit referendum vote into two components: the first being the permanent effects it will likely have on the United Kingdom, Europe and the global economy; and the second being the more temporary factors.

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Emerging Markets

Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities

From a labor market perspective, we think it is hard to justify maintaining interest rates at zero or to pursue a negative-interest rate policy in the United States. We would argue the Fed should be raising rates sooner rather than later to avoid losing credibility.

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This Is Not 2008

The risk aversion across emerging markets appears to have reached a maximum state of unwarranted pessimism, in our view, and we see a vast set of valuation opportunities amid the volatility.

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Inflation: Dead, or Just Forgotten?

We believe that widespread underestimation of future inflation, together with the prospective normalization in the relationship between long-term interest rates and nominal GDP growth, sets the stage for a significant correction in Treasury yields.

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Why We’re Not Panicking about China

On the whole, our view remains that underlying conditions in the Chinese economy are fundamentally more stable than markets have recently indicated.

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Fixed Income

Japan’s Demographic Challenges Dampen Growth

Demographics have played—and continue to play—a key role in holding back Japan’s growth performance. Japan’s population keeps aging at a rapid pace.