Beyond Bulls & Bears

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Perspectives

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Trading proved to be choppy last week. European equities managed to make small gains as defensive rotation continued. US markets were mixed as weakness in the tech space weighed. Markets in Asia Pacific were mostly lower.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week proved to be a difficult week for many asset classes, with a number of catalysts contributing to a slump across markets on Wednesday. Rising US Treasury yields set the scene for the mid-week selloff, but didn’t account for the full scale of it. Concerns about growth slowdown, trade tensions, and the pace of interest rate rises also played their part.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Equity markets moved higher early last week on news that the next wave of US tariffs on China would not be as severe as expected. Retaliatory measures from China were also seen as restrained.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

“If the United Kingdom fails to reach a deal or pass it through Parliament, the prospect of a fresh general election is a very real likelihood, in our view, bringing with it much uncertainty.” Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

“It seems likely the Five Star Movement will have a major part to play in Italian policy going forward. Coalition governments are commonplace in Italy and a single party has not won an outright majority since the Second World War.”- Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team, March 5, 2018.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

We’ve seen some dramatic headlines in the wake of last Friday's US equity selloff, but it’s important to remember that equities have had an incredible run over the past year. In relative terms, we consider this pullback to be reasonably small. - Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk Team

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

"Last week was quiet until sleepy summer markets were woken by a war of words between North Korea and the United States, with both sides threatening military action. On the back of this we saw a de-risking across asset classes, and global equity markets declined across the board." - Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

"Central bank commentary has been driving headlines throughout the second quarter, from our perspective, and last week was no exception as several monetary policymakers in different jurisdictions gave a hawkish tilt to speeches, fuelling speculation that the period of ultra-accommodative monetary policy could be approaching an end.” - Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Perspectives

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Given the improving macroeconomic data we have seen from the eurozone of late, there was a good deal of scrutiny on ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference to see if he would step back from his dovish stance. Draghi appeared keen to be careful not to unsettle markets with excessively hawkish rhetoric.

Notes from the Trading Desk – US Election Special
Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – US Election Special

For Asian markets trading Wednesday morning, we felt it was almost a replay of the Brexit tape—initial complacency made a hard turn into the realisation that an upset was imminent.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe: Brexit Special
Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe: Brexit Special

It is anticipated that the UK will likely see a hit to growth in the short- and medium-term, with an increased risk of a technical recession, not helped by the profound uncertainty as to the prospects of this political contagion.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Perspectives

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The main event of this week’s macro calendar will be the US nonfarm payroll employment data on Friday (May 6). The scrutiny on US data is immense, with so much focus on when the Fed will next lift interest rates.