Beyond Bulls & Bears

Flash Insights: July FOMC meeting—Powell runs ahead of the Committee as usual
Fixed Income

Flash Insights: July FOMC meeting—Powell runs ahead of the Committee as usual

Although the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged at its July meeting, changes to the Federal Open Market Committee statement laid the groundwork for rate cuts. However, as the post-meeting press conference progressed, Chair Jerome Powell’s statement turned from balanced to slightly more dovish, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan.

Flash Insights: BoJ delivers on both fronts
Fixed Income

Flash Insights: BoJ delivers on both fronts

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to more than a 10-year high on July 31, a decision driven by elevated wage growth and the yen’s weakness, both of which pose upside risks to the inflation outlook. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists believe that further rate hikes are likely, both this year and next.

Uncovering income opportunities
Perspectives

Uncovering income opportunities

Inflation is cooling but the journey to the Fed's target is tough. Meanwhile, the labor market has steadied, hinting at less aggressive Fed rate cuts. Insights on the market implications from Franklin Income Investors CIO Ed Perks.

Quick Thoughts: GOP clean sweep? What it might mean for markets
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: GOP clean sweep? What it might mean for markets

With the 2024 US election a focal point for investors, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover outlines the possible economic and market impacts of a Republican ”clean sweep” in November.

On My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses what the US government’s persistently loose fiscal policy means for the upcoming monetary policy easing cycle and, in turn, for the US Treasury yield outlook over the medium to long term.

Quick Thoughts: French first-round elections
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: French first-round elections

Thoughts on the first round of the French elections and why governing France will likely prove challenging from Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover.

Flood-risk mitigation in Slovenia: A case study
Fixed Income

Flood-risk mitigation in Slovenia: A case study

Climate change adaptation is becoming increasingly necessary. For asset managers, it is imperative to know which issuers are well prepared for future risk events. Using Slovenia’s flood-risk mitigation efforts as an example, we explain why a thorough understanding of both potential risks and relevant mitigation measures is a cornerstone of best-in-class impact investing.

Flash Insights: June FOMC meeting—erring on the side of caution
Fixed Income

Flash Insights: June FOMC meeting—erring on the side of caution

The Federal Reserve exercised caution at its June meeting, signaling only one interest rate cut in 2024. Policymakers will need to see more than just “modest further progress” on inflation before easing can begin, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan.

EU election ushers in uncertainty and volatility
Fixed Income

EU election ushers in uncertainty and volatility

The European Parliament election resulted in expected gains for far-right parties—and an unexpected decision by French President Emmanuel Macron to call a national election on June 30. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s Head of European Fixed Income, discusses why the campaign in France will contribute to market volatility and may be pivotal for the European Union (EU).

ECB begins what may be a slow cutting cycle
Fixed Income

ECB begins what may be a slow cutting cycle

The European Central Bank cut its key benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, while indicating that its future moves will depend on incoming financial and economic data. David Zahn, Franklin Templeton’s Head of European Fixed Income, shares why he thinks the ECB will likely move slowly and discusses the implications for investors.

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Stuck in a moment
Fixed Income

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Stuck in a moment

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists are seeing increasing divergence in the monetary policy paths across the Group of Three (G3) nations. While sustained disinflation is far from guaranteed in the United States, keeping the US Federal Reserve vigilant, the European Central Bank has embarked on a controlled monetary policy easing cycle. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has to weigh the economic benefits of a weak yen against its impact on inflation expectations, in order to decide how far to raise policy rates this year.

On My Mind: (r)-stargazing
Fixed Income

On My Mind: (r)-stargazing

Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses where she thinks the real policy rate lies in the United States and how this informs her outlook for US Treasury yields over the medium to long term.