Beyond Bulls & Bears

    Fixed Income

    A story about the drongo, the meerkat and debt markets
    Alternatives

    A story about the drongo, the meerkat and debt markets

    A look at private credit, and why increased activity in the broadly syndicated loans space is not necessarily a bad thing for direct lending, and vice versa, from Benefit Street Partners Managing Director Anant Kumar.

    Anant Kumar | April 12, 2024
    Flash Insights: March inflation—Yet another reason to delay easing
    Fixed Income

    Flash Insights: March inflation—Yet another reason to delay easing

    March US consumer prices rose faster than expected. The reacceleration in supercore inflation suggests the strong inflation readings at the start of the year may not have been mere blips. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan expects the Federal Reserve will likely begin rate cuts in September, but inflation trends may affect the timing of the cuts.

    Nikhil Mohan | April 10, 2024
    Sharpen your pencils—It’s budget season
    Fixed Income

    Sharpen your pencils—It’s budget season

    State budget offices and municipal bond analysts evaluate the economic and fiscal outlook for the next fiscal year. In this document, we examine how California, New York and Illinois have different budget situations and how they plan to balance their budgets using various tools.

    Ben Barber, CFA | March 27, 2024
    On My Mind: Fed Chair Powell—I still haven’t found what I’m looking for…
    Fixed Income

    On My Mind: Fed Chair Powell—I still haven’t found what I’m looking for…

    Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai believes that the Fed's March policy meeting was not as dovish as some commentators and market participants have claimed, and that the Fed is still pragmatic and cautious about inflation and rate cuts. In her view, getting inflation down to 2% will be harder and take longer than Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expects, and she predicts that rate cuts will come only later—in the second half of the year.

    Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | March 22, 2024
    Quick Thoughts: The Fed—Steady as she goes
    Perspectives

    Quick Thoughts: The Fed—Steady as she goes

    Thoughts on the US monetary policy path ahead from Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover and Rick Polsinello.

    Stephen H. Dover, CFA | March 21, 2024
    Flash Insights: Bank of Japan—A “watchful” adjustment
    Fixed Income

    Flash Insights: Bank of Japan—A “watchful” adjustment

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates for the first time since 2007 and has eliminated the yield curve control framework. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Economist Rini Sen expects the bulk of further tightening will likely come in 2025 as the BoJ seeks to reach a sustainable 2% inflation target by end of fiscal year 2025.

    Rini Sen | March 19, 2024
    Flash Insights: Food for Thought—February CPI continues to prove stubborn
    Fixed Income

    Flash Insights: Food for Thought—February CPI continues to prove stubborn

    Stubborn core and supercore inflation will mean that the Fed will want some more evidence that their preferred measures of inflation are moving sustainably lower according to Nikhil Mohan, Franklin Fixed Income economist. Read our latest views.

    Nikhil Mohan | March 12, 2024
    Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Just a little patience
    Fixed Income

    Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Macro Views: Just a little patience

    Franklin Templeton Fixed Income economists are seeing evidence of sticky inflation across the Group of Three (G3) nations. While central banks in the United States and eurozone are gauging when to embark on monetary easing, the Bank of Japan will likely hike in April. All three will continue to monitor wages (and their impact on services inflation) and the balance of risks to economic growth.

    Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | March 01, 2024
    On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket
    Fixed Income

    On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket

    Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the January inflation print confirms that the “last mile” of disinflation may prove to be a lot harder than markets expect, and investors should brace for more volatility and a possible move of 10-year Treasury yields back in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

    Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | February 14, 2024
    On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?
    Fixed Income

    On My Mind: Productivity boom—new dawn or false dawn?

    Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the recent acceleration in productivity growth might prove durable, leading to higher potential returns on real investment and a higher equilibrium interest rate.

    Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | February 07, 2024
    Meet the Manager: Lloyd Nemerever
    Fixed Income

    Meet the Manager: Lloyd Nemerever

    Having a degree in mathematics and an interest in improving processes has led Lloyd Nemerever, Head of Municipal Bonds SMA Strategies, to a successful career in investment management. Find out about innovations in the municipal bond market space that Lloyd is excited about and get to know more about him in this Q&A.

    Lloyd Nemerever | February 05, 2024
    Food for Thought: The Fed—We’ll get there when we get there!
    Fixed Income

    Food for Thought: The Fed—We’ll get there when we get there!

    Instead of pivoting directly toward an easing bias, the Federal Open Market Committee opted for a wait-and-watch approach in January. Franklin Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan expects rate cuts to come, but not quite as soon as or as many as markets have been anticipating.

    Nikhil Mohan | February 02, 2024