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Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

This week, inflation is in focus with reports from the United Kingdom, Sweden, Japan, and a second reading of eurozone inflation in July. If core inflation remains elevated in the United Kingdom and Europe, the markets are likely to price in central bank rate hikes this fall.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The new market consensus for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes is for 50 basis points (bps) to be added in the first half of 2023, followed by 200 bps of cuts over the following 18 months. It remains to be seen whether the market will eventually give in and follow the hawkish central bank tones, or whether the central banks will pivot to a more dovish stance than they have adopted until now.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equity markets closed out another bruising quarter last week, as global recessionary fears gripped investor sentiment. Macro datapoints point to slowdowns in global growth and investors now have their sights on the upcoming second-quarter (Q2) earnings season for some indications around the robustness of companies as we head into the second half of the year.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

All eyes are on this Thursday’s ECB meeting after last week’s Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came ahead of expectations at 8.1%, putting further pressure on the ECB to rein in inflation.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Corporate earnings should continue to dominate attention in the United States and Europe this week, with a significant number of companies reporting. Last week Fedspeak was a market driver, but as we enter the blackout period ahead of the 4 May FOMC meeting, it will be quieter on this front.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Markets seem to be looking towards a ceasefire in Ukraine. Reports over the rest of the week showed little hope of any imminent de-escalation, with the crisis appearing to deepen in some areas of the country as Russian forces appeared to regroup, especially in the south and east.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

It has now been over four weeks since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and there are very few signs that the conflict will be coming to an end soon. But, it still feels like hope is a big driving factor behind relative equity market strength despite the clear headwinds. 

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Central bank action continues this week, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Norges Bank and Bank of England (Thursday) all meeting. The Fed is expected to announce the start of tapering, including key details on the pace, timing and composition of its plan to reduce asset purchases.