Beyond Bulls & Bears

Global Economic Perspective: January

Global Economic Perspective: January

Though the rest of the world may not be doing as well as the United States, we think global growth remains acceptable and do not anticipate a global recession or global deflation.

Global Economic Perspective: November

Global Economic Perspective: November

While China’s manufacturing sector—which drove China’s rise to its place as the world’s second-largest economy—has been losing steam, it is being supplanted by a domestic, consumer-led economy propelled by a rising middle class with growing income. Other Asian countries are on a similar trajectory.

Global Economic Perspective: October

Global Economic Perspective: October

Overall, while there are plenty of ‘problem children’ in the emerging-market space, there are undoubtedly assets and currencies being beaten down by broad-brush assessments of economic prospects that merit renewed attention.

Global Economic Perspective: September

Global Economic Perspective: September

While the [US] Fed is facing an extremely delicate task ... it is still our belief that the US economy remains sufficiently strong to be able to bear a gradual increase in short-term rates in the coming months.

Global Economic Perspective: August

Global Economic Perspective: August

We believe sound headline job creation figures point to rate increases by a [US] Fed that would like to begin to ‘normalize’ monetary policy when possible. The US economy is no longer in the emergency room, as it was in December 2008.

Searching for Natural Hedges Against Interest-Rate Risk

Searching for Natural Hedges Against Interest-Rate Risk

We have found that historically over time, interest-rate moves don’t often play as large of a role in a broadly diversified fixed income portfolio as one might think.

Global Economic Perspective: July

Global Economic Perspective: July

All in all, recent data would seem to confirm the Fed’s view that first-quarter 2015 weakness was 'transitory' and that the US economy regained its footing in the second quarter, perhaps setting the stage for a more robust second half of the year.

Global Economic Perspective: June

Global Economic Perspective: June

In spite of lingering concerns about Greece’s fate, the European economy would appear to have hit a sweet spot marked by steadily improving growth and inflation figures along with declining unemployment.

Global Economic Perspective: May

Global Economic Perspective: May

Although liquidity from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan will continue to seep into select markets, countries exposed to the US dollar could see bond yields—and hence debt service costs—rise as the Fed tightens policy.

Global Economic Perspective: April

Global Economic Perspective: April

Given the example set by US equity markets after the Fed stepped in to buy government debt in two successive QE programs, investors appear convinced that the rally in European financial markets has considerably longer to run.

Global Economic Perspective: March

Global Economic Perspective: March

We think the US economy is currently in a kind of ‘goldilocks’ scenario, with positive economic growth and low inflation.

2015 Investment Outlook: Asian Credit Markets

2015 Investment Outlook: Asian Credit Markets

Focusing specifically on Asia (ex Japan), we see a region that continues to lead global growth, despite slowing from high levels, while offering attractive valuation relative to developed markets. This dynamic is not new, as yield-hungry investors have looked to Asia for spread pickup in the wake of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.