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Notes from the Trading Desk: Europe

Headwinds persist and volatility remains, and investors seem to be looking beyond the immediate issues that have been weighing on stocks, giving the market short-term, risk-on moves higher.

Notes from the Trading Desk: Europe

The ECB will be a key focus on Thursday as it considers accelerating the pace of interest-rate hikes. The market is placing about a 70% probability on a 75-basis-point increase, which would be the ECB’s single biggest hike since its inception. Sticking with Europe the energy crisis will remain front and centre given the Nord Stream 1 shut down. Markets will also be watching German Industrial Production data, out on Wednesday.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week was another tough one for European equities, and the euro traded through parity versus the US dollar for much of the week given the gloomy economic backdrop. In addition, we saw a late selloff on Friday following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. It is worth noting that volumes remained low.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Energy prices continue to be a focus for the markets. European gas prices have edged back towards their year-to-date highs. In addition, relatively low water levels in the Rhine are not helping sentiment and could continue to dampen German economic growth.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Despite the strength in the market overall, a number of headwinds persist for European corporates, and one area of focus is the Rhine river water level, which continues to drop. This could have the potential to restrict the transportation of goods through central Europe, at a time when the continent is already suffering the worst energy crisis in decades.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Europe remain heightened, with gas supplies restricted by Russia’s political posturing. Meanwhile, US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has caused some shockwaves and signalled a deterioration in US-China relations.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week saw a strong end to the month, which helped many equity indices claw back some of the first half of year losses and have their best monthly performance for some time. There was a glut of corporate earnings and some better-than-expected results from index heavyweights in the United States helped sentiment.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

European equity markets proved resilient last week despite a larger-than-expected ECB rate hike, weak macro data and regional political uncertainty (Italy and United Kingdom). Sentiment was helped somewhat by Russia resuming gas flow via Nord Stream 1 following a maintenance shutdown and some reassuring US corporate earnings.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Political events take centre stage in the week ahead. After Johnson announced his intention to resign as UK prime minister, the ruling Conservative Party must now choose a successor. The timetable for that contest is expected within days.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equity markets closed out another bruising quarter last week, as global recessionary fears gripped investor sentiment. Macro datapoints point to slowdowns in global growth and investors now have their sights on the upcoming second-quarter (Q2) earnings season for some indications around the robustness of companies as we head into the second half of the year.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week’s rally was a welcome relief for equity investors, but questions remain as to the reasons for the move. It seems likely that the market bounce was driven by some month- and quarter-end positioning from oversold levels, but hopes rose that we could be approaching peak inflation thanks to declines in commodity prices.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. The European desk is manned by eight professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, with an average of 15 years of experience whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.