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Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equities sold off hard into the end of last week as inflation and growth fears continued to weigh on sentiment.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

All eyes are on this Thursday’s ECB meeting after last week’s Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came ahead of expectations at 8.1%, putting further pressure on the ECB to rein in inflation.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Given recent declines, there is much discussion around what is priced into market. With global markets declining for six consecutive weeks, there is an increasing debate over how much bad news is priced in, and whether markets are now oversold.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Corporate earnings should continue to dominate attention in the United States and Europe this week, with a significant number of companies reporting. Last week Fedspeak was a market driver, but as we enter the blackout period ahead of the 4 May FOMC meeting, it will be quieter on this front.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week saw lacklustre performance for many equity markets as focus turned to hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve (Fed), COVID-19 concerns in China and uncertainty around the outcome of the French presidential election. In addition, the war in Ukraine continues to grind on with little or no sign of progress in peace talks.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Despite the overall strength last week, stock markets were really at the mercy of the headlines tied to Ukraine, which flip-flopped from one day to the next on the progress of peace talks.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Soaring commodity prices and the commensurate inflationary impact is alarming investors. The fear is that consumer confidence and spending will be hit, and we find ourselves in a stagflation environment, with stagnating economic growth (or recession) and soaring inflation.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

It is well known that the pain from the gas price moves is significant, particularly for Germany and Italy. The Italian government has said it is reviewing options, including reopening shuttered coal plants. In Germany, the government is reported to be considering delaying the phasing out of nuclear power.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week saw markets whipsaw from day-to-day as nerves remained brittle over central-bank policy, geopolitics risk and corporate earnings. The key focus for last week was Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, which saw Chair Jerome Powell maintain a hawkish stance and leave an interest-rate hike at the March meeting on the table.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

There has been a clear focus on central bank rhetoric at the start of the new year, with investors wary of the speed and extent to which monetary policy will begin to tighten.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Investors continue to assess the economic impact of high COVID infection rates. The latest variant, Omicron, drove the number of infections in the United Kingdom to new daily highs last week and is expected to become the dominant strain in the eurozone.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Central bank policy takes centre stage this week as over 20 central banks have interest-rate decisions this week. Focus is primarily on the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Wednesday, and the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) meetings Thursday.