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Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. As part of Templeton Global Equity Group, the European equity desk is manned by a team of professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

To start the week, focus will be on headlines from the China’s National People's Congress. Through the course of the week there are some a number of macro data points to watch out for, but the February US employment report, out on Friday, will be the key focus.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Unsurprisingly, it looks like an extremely quiet week ahead. No meaningful corporate events are scheduled this week and the macro calendar is also light, with the Eurozone Consumer Confidence reading on Tuesday and UK GDP Thursday the highlights.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Looking ahead to the end of the year, this week and next look to be crucial in terms of setting investor sentiment. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its policy meeting, and Chinese Consumer Price Index data stand out.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The G20 summit in Bali will be a key focus for markets this week. Leaders will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Geopolitical tensions, the war in Ukraine and inflation levels are expected to be the hot topics at the summit. Outside of that, inflation prints in Europe throughout the week will be closely watched.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The next two weeks could be key for setting the tone into year end. There are several central bank meetings this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, Norges Bank and Bank of England. Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate decision and statement will likely be the key event of the week.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The key focus for this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, with a 75 basis point interest-rate hike expected. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also speak, likely to reiterate that quantitative tightening will begin after interest-rate normalisation has completed. The US GDP report on Thursday will also be closely watched. Earnings season gets into full swing this week, so focus will be on corporate reporting.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. The European desk is manned by eight professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, with an average of 15 years of experience whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week saw some extreme moves in equity markets as investors digested several central bank announcements, most notably the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. In Ukraine, the Russian advance in the east made marginal gains, and with no mention of peace talks anymore, a long, drawn-out campaign into the summer seems probable. The impact of this on commodity and food prices is clear.

Europe Outlook: A French Economic Evolution

Franklin Mutual Series’ Katrina Dudley sees President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election as a positive for the French economy and regional equity markets over the longer term.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

It has now been over four weeks since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and there are very few signs that the conflict will be coming to an end soon. But, it still feels like hope is a big driving factor behind relative equity market strength despite the clear headwinds.