Beyond Bulls & Bears

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. The European desk is manned by eight professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, with an average of 15 years of experience whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week saw some extreme moves in equity markets as investors digested several central bank announcements, most notably the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. In Ukraine, the Russian advance in the east made marginal gains, and with no mention of peace talks anymore, a long, drawn-out campaign into the summer seems probable. The impact of this on commodity and food prices is clear.

Europe Outlook: A French Economic Evolution
Equity

Europe Outlook: A French Economic Evolution

Franklin Mutual Series’ Katrina Dudley sees President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election as a positive for the French economy and regional equity markets over the longer term.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

It has now been over four weeks since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and there are very few signs that the conflict will be coming to an end soon. But, it still feels like hope is a big driving factor behind relative equity market strength despite the clear headwinds. 

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Events in Ukraine will continue to be a key driver for investor sentiment, with markets likely to see-saw on any meaningful news. It is a busy week for central banks too, with the Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday and Bank of Japan on Friday.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Nerves have been on edge as Russia President Vladimir Putin continues to amass troops along the Ukrainian border, which has created some market volatility as the threat of war in Europe looms over investors. January has been a rollercoaster ride for equity markets.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

It’s been a tough start to the week for European equities as they catch up with the US move lower on Friday. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the Fed meeting on Wednesday and a number of bellwether corporate earnings reports in the United States.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The first half of 2022 brings some European political events to keep an eye on, namely appointment of a new Italian president and French presidential elections. A return to a more combative Italian government could create tensions within the European Union—another potential headwind for equity markets.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

News of the COVID-19 variant that emerged in South Africa (named Omicron) shook sentiment late last week prompting sharp declines. Looking ahead, it will be important to watch how this latest COVID news feeds into central bank thinking, with money markets already repriced the timeline for potential interest rate hikes further out.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Central bank action continues this week, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Norges Bank and Bank of England (Thursday) all meeting. The Fed is expected to announce the start of tapering, including key details on the pace, timing and composition of its plan to reduce asset purchases.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

It was encouraging to see equity markets stabilise last week, but as we move towards the fourth quarter, it does feel like investor sentiment is somewhat brittle. We did see retail investors stepping in and "buying the dip" last week. This remains an important market dynamic to watch.