Beyond Bulls & Bears

On My Mind: Something Has to Give
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Something Has to Give

There are differing opinions for why US Treasury yields have suddenly dropped. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai outlines three possible scenarios and the logical implications of each; in the current constellation of asset prices, she argues, something does not add up.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The primary focus for investors last week was the Fed meeting and the market impact thereafter. As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged, but id give new guidance for their expected path of rate hikes (the “dot plot”) and revised their inflation expectations.

On My Mind – Inflation: The Devil We Knew
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: The Devil We Knew

Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has been ahead of the curve in flagging the risks of inflation and rising rates that have now entered the mainstream debate. In this article, she assesses the coming together of an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, a very accommodative US Federal Reserve, and an economy poised to rebound as vaccination campaigns pave the way for reopening businesses. She cautions that central bankers might be underestimating how difficult it will be to deal with the 'devil they knew'—inflation—especially if inflation expectations become unmoored; and, she highlights the key fixed income investment implications.

Quick Thoughts: US Elections, Global Stimulus, and 2021 Growth
Fixed Income

Quick Thoughts: US Elections, Global Stimulus, and 2021 Growth

Our Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, and Western Asset’s CIO, Ken Leech, believe global stimulus and the likely longer availability of zero or negative interest rates will support the path to growth in 2021. And China will continue its growth path to becoming a bigger part of the global financial community.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Increases in COVID-19 infections, as well as the uncertainty of the US presidential race and Brexit negotiations, are all providing significant overhangs for markets right now.

PODCAST: Considering Mortgage-Backed Securities in a Fixed Income Portfolio
Fixed Income

PODCAST: Considering Mortgage-Backed Securities in a Fixed Income Portfolio

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted all corners of the market, including mortgage-backed securities. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Paul Varunok takes a closer look at the space, and why he feels they can offer some stability in a fixed income portfolio.

On My Mind: More Heavy Lifting from the Fed—While Congress Squabbles
Fixed Income

On My Mind: More Heavy Lifting from the Fed—While Congress Squabbles

The US Federal Reserve continues to use whatever tools it can to help combat economic fallout from the coronavirus. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, calls its latest response “a whole new level” of stimulus.

On My Mind: The Fed Responds
Fixed Income

On My Mind: The Fed Responds

The US Federal Reserve surprised markets on Tuesday with an interest-rate cut, but will it restore investor confidence? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her initial reaction.

On My Mind: Oops! They QE’d Again
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Oops! They QE’d Again

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has gone back to expanding its balance sheet. Some claim that quantitative easing (QE) is back; the Fed denies it. What we call it isn’t the point, says Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO—what matters are the implications of this “permanently loose” policy stance for asset prices, investment strategy and market volatility.

On My Mind: Will the US Economy Survive the Politics in 2020?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Will the US Economy Survive the Politics in 2020?

The many gloomy predictions for 2019 did not come to pass, but can we be more optimistic for 2020? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai draws the key lessons from last year and outlines what she expects for the year ahead and her main concerns, with political uncertainty top of the list.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week saw equity markets tread water ahead of a number of upcoming notable events and catalysts expected this week. Still, the narrative around US trade relations with the rest of the world was a prime focus, as US President Donald Trump shared his thoughts on the US relationship with a number of different countries. 

The Fed Calls Time for a Reality Check
Fixed Income

The Fed Calls Time for a Reality Check

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the second time this year, but some observers were disappointed the Fed didn’t more strongly signal future easing moves. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts on why the central bank needed to rein in expectations a bit.