Beyond Bulls & Bears

Global Economic Perspective: November
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: November

We do not believe a Trump presidency will materially alter the course of the US economy in the near term. Fundamentals ultimately drive longer-term performance in the fixed income markets, and in our view, these remain broadly supportive of a slow but steady rate of expansion.

Global Economic Perspective: October
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: October

While heartened by the bounce in oil prices after the multi-decade lows reached early in the year, any significant further rally in energy prices would seem to us to require a far more vibrant global economy. As the IMF’s (and the Fed’s) relatively subdued outlooks make clear, it is hard to anticipate such a scenario occurring anytime soon.

US Election Implications for Europe: What Many Observers Are Missing
Fixed Income

US Election Implications for Europe: What Many Observers Are Missing

It’s fair to say that global referendums held recently have not proved terribly successful for their organisers. Whether that unhappy tradition continues with the Italian referendum on constitutional reform scheduled to be held on December 4 remains to be seen.

Global Economic Perspective: September
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: September

The BOJ provides perhaps one of the most extreme examples of the repression of interest rates by central banks. At some point, Japan—along with other countries that have embarked on such untested monetary policies—may be forced to address the distortions it has imposed upon its markets.

Global Economic Perspective: August
Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: August

As policymakers confront the limits of the monetary approach, conversations have increasingly turned to a discussion of potential alternatives to combat slow growth. Looking forward, we think this dialogue will likely broaden to include more countries in the months to come.

Global Economic Perspective: July
Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: July

In terms of monetary policy, we had expected the BOE to move into easing mode, though it chose not to do so at its July meeting, but we think the ECB will try to gauge the impact of the UK result, rather than rush to expand or extend its current program of bond purchases.

Global Economic Perspective: June
Perspectives

Global Economic Perspective: June

Our view is that the US economy remains on course to pick up over the rest of this year, despite May’s disappointing payroll report and the Fed’s subsequent decision at its June meeting to leave interest rates unchanged. We do not place too much importance on this single piece of data and believe the economy’s robust fundamentals are likely to fulfill the Fed’s criteria for tightening monetary policy fairly soon.