Beyond Bulls & Bears

Quick Thoughts: How to avoid making a unicorn skeleton
Multi-Asset

Quick Thoughts: How to avoid making a unicorn skeleton

Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, crunches the data to decipher the odds of a US recession this year and the implications for investor portfolios.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The next two weeks could be key for setting the tone into year end. There are several central bank meetings this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, Norges Bank and Bank of England. Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate decision and statement will likely be the key event of the week.

On my mind: Rollercoaster ride to reality
Fixed Income

On my mind: Rollercoaster ride to reality

We are witnessing a major shift in the fixed income investment environment. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai assesses the role of global and country-specific driving forces, and shares her views on the investment opportunities ahead.

Notes from the Trading Desk: Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk: Europe

Headwinds persist and volatility remains, and investors seem to be looking beyond the immediate issues that have been weighing on stocks, giving the market short-term, risk-on moves higher.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Energy prices continue to be a focus for the markets. European gas prices have edged back towards their year-to-date highs. In addition, relatively low water levels in the Rhine are not helping sentiment and could continue to dampen German economic growth.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Despite the strength in the market overall, a number of headwinds persist for European corporates, and one area of focus is the Rhine river water level, which continues to drop. This could have the potential to restrict the transportation of goods through central Europe, at a time when the continent is already suffering the worst energy crisis in decades.

On my mind: Are we there yet?
Fixed Income

On my mind: Are we there yet?

Are we there yet? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hedged himself carefully at the July press conference; markets heard it as confirming expectations that we are closing in on the terminal rate and that the Fed will likely start cutting again as early as March of next year. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai is not so sure—here are her thoughts:

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week’s rally was a welcome relief for equity investors, but questions remain as to the reasons for the move. It seems likely that the market bounce was driven by some month- and quarter-end positioning from oversold levels, but hopes rose that we could be approaching peak inflation thanks to declines in commodity prices.

PODCAST: Looking beneath the surface of monetary policy tightening
Perspectives

PODCAST: Looking beneath the surface of monetary policy tightening

Thought leaders from Franklin Templeton and our specialist investment managers discuss how the largest Fed hike in nearly three decades, along with the possibility of subsequent significant hikes, could impact US markets and the economy. Plus, which developed and emerging markets face the most challenging economic and investing environments. 

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. The European desk is manned by eight professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, with an average of 15 years of experience whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

Turbulence ahead
Perspectives

Turbulence ahead

The US Fed just made the biggest interest-rate increase since 1994. Should we be worried? Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, discusses the rising risk of a recession.

On my mind: The Fed capitulates
Fixed Income

On my mind: The Fed capitulates

The Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in its June policy meeting, acknowledging continued upside surprises on inflation, inflation expectations and wage growth. It also de facto abandoned forward guidance. It was a reminder that economic data eventually rule the day, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She argues this is a welcome but only partial move to a more realistic stance, and discusses why further hawkish surprises likely lie ahead.