Beyond Bulls & Bears

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?

Prices continue to climb, with the US CPI rising in June by the most since 2008. Financial markets seem to be unfazed, but businesses and consumers appear considerably less sanguine. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why inflation may be less “transitory” than many expect.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Equity markets in the United States and Europe paused for breath last week as familiar themes dominated. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony at Congress was in focus and concerns over the COVID-19 Delta variant remained front and centre.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Even though we saw some selling pressure last week, it’s important to keep the moves in context. ]. With earnings season looming large, some profit-taking in often-crowded positions is not too surprising. We expect market volatility around commentary to be a key theme in the second half of this year.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equities were mixed last week across the regions, reflecting unwinds and relative exposures to value versus growth. COVID-19 themes were evident as fears regarding the spread of the Delta variant hit investor sentiment given potential travel restrictions.

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe

The European economy is recovering fast from the COVID-19 recession. The relaxation in COVID-related restrictions has resulted in sharp growth in both services and manufacturing. The reflation trade appeared to be re-emerging.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The primary focus for investors last week was the Fed meeting and the market impact thereafter. As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged, but id give new guidance for their expected path of rate hikes (the “dot plot”) and revised their inflation expectations.

On My Mind – The Fed’s Last Call for the Punchbowl?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – The Fed’s Last Call for the Punchbowl?

The Fed now acknowledges inflation risks are to the upside. With high uncertainty on the inflation and employment outlook, adjusting its exceptionally loose monetary stance at the right time and pace become a very difficult high-wire act. In the latest edition of our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s “On My Mind” series, she discusses the Fed’s challenge, and where she is finding opportunities in the market.

European Fixed Income Finds Central Bank Support
Fixed Income

European Fixed Income Finds Central Bank Support

As Europe’s economy continues to recover from COVID-19, it appears the central bank will remain accommodative, but for how long? Our Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn shares his views.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Improving macro data and continuously dovish central banks have kept equity markets well supported. Given the push and pull, the market continues to react to specific headlines and announcements, rather than the reopening trade as a general theme.

On My Mind: A Tale of Two Recoveries
Fixed Income

On My Mind: A Tale of Two Recoveries

While a global recovery has now become the base case for financial markets, differences between countries and regions on the path toward normalcy are significant and seem set to widen. In the latest edition of our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s “On My Mind” series, she evaluates the differences in policy decisions, both on the fiscal front as well as in vaccination campaigns, and how the resulting differing paths will shape the map of investment opportunities.

PODCAST: Anatomy of a Recession: Expecting an Economic Boom
Equity

PODCAST: Anatomy of a Recession: Expecting an Economic Boom

Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, a specialist investment manager of Franklin Templeton, discusses why expectations for gross domestic product growth in the United States are soaring, how high the 10-year Treasury could rise, and why not to fear inflation long term.

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe

The spread of COVID-19 infections in continental Europe and how governments are managing it continues to contribute heavily to the market push and pull we’ve seen in recent weeks and months.