Beyond Bulls & Bears

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equities were in risk-off mode last week as caution rose over the spread of a deadly virus. The new coronavirus outbreak started in China, but cases have now been confirmed in many other countries. Market commentators were quick to reflect on the SARS epidemic from 2003 as evidence of the economic impact of a similarly deadly infection

On My Mind: Oops! They QE’d Again
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Oops! They QE’d Again

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has gone back to expanding its balance sheet. Some claim that quantitative easing (QE) is back; the Fed denies it. What we call it isn’t the point, says Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO—what matters are the implications of this “permanently loose” policy stance for asset prices, investment strategy and market volatility.

On My Mind: Will the US Economy Survive the Politics in 2020?
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Will the US Economy Survive the Politics in 2020?

The many gloomy predictions for 2019 did not come to pass, but can we be more optimistic for 2020? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai draws the key lessons from last year and outlines what she expects for the year ahead and her main concerns, with political uncertainty top of the list.

Navigating New Global Market Uncertainties
Equity

Navigating New Global Market Uncertainties

Templeton Global Equity Group’s Tony Docal, Peter Moeschter and Heather Waddell provide an overview of events shaping markets in the third quarter and share their outlook for global equities. They explain their preference for multinational companies in the United Kingdom, why they see downside risk as limited in Europe versus the United States and why they still see a case for value investing.

The Four Pillars to Face a World of Uncertainty
Fixed Income

The Four Pillars to Face a World of Uncertainty

Global investors are facing extraordinary economic, political and financial market conditions that risk sending the world into a perilous period, according to Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab. He explains why he and his team see these conditions as an opportunity, and outlines the “four pillars” behind their strategy to cope with them.

Staying Nimble Amid an Uncertain Outlook
Perspectives

Staying Nimble Amid an Uncertain Outlook

Bouts of volatility hit markets across the globe in the third quarter of 2019 amid continued uncertainties about global growth and trade. Central banks took notice, with the US Federal Reserve easing interest rates for the first time in more than a decade and the European Central Bank also cutting rates and reintroducing quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, our senior investment leaders discuss why they do not see a recession in the near term, but are taking a cautious and nimble approach.

The Fed Calls Time for a Reality Check
Fixed Income

The Fed Calls Time for a Reality Check

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the second time this year, but some observers were disappointed the Fed didn’t more strongly signal future easing moves. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her thoughts on why the central bank needed to rein in expectations a bit.

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?
Fixed Income

Adrift: Has Monetary Policy Become Unanchored?

In light of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest-rate cut, our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai takes a look at how US central bank thinking seems to have changed, and whether there’s a risk of having interest rates too close to zero. She argues deflation risks are overblown and looser monetary policy will lead to increased financial market distortions.

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice
Fixed Income

The Federal Reserve: Dealer’s Choice

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time in 11 years in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment” to sustain the US economic expansion. Powell appeared to struggle to reconcile his admission the US economy is strong with this decision, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She shares her thoughts on the July policy meeting and the potential market implications.

Four Reasons Why Gold Prices Have Been Moving Higher
Equity

Four Reasons Why Gold Prices Have Been Moving Higher

“In our view, the current gold rally is an opportunity for gold-mining companies to show how much cash they can generate in slightly better gold markets.” - Steve Land

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues in earnest, with releases likely to drive the larger market moves. It’s also another busy week for central banks, as we hear from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday.

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination
Fixed Income

Why We’re Positive About Lagarde’s ECB Nomination

Christine Lagarde may have emerged as a surprise candidate to take the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB), but David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, sees it as a positive choice. Here he explains why both her experience, and lack of it, could prove positive if she does secure the job. And he shares his conviction that, whoever is in charge, the ECB is likely to remain steadfast on its easing path.