Beyond Bulls & Bears

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The picture remains fairly bleak with regards to COVID-19 newsflow and it’s unlikely normality will return in Europe for some time. Even if lockdowns are lifted in coming months, it is hard to see consumer behaviour quickly returning to previous habits, unless there are sudden advancements in testing for antibodies or vaccinations. However, any meaningful positive news on improving rates of infection/deaths would support investor sentiment.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Concerns over trade and UK politics have bubbled away throughout the past year and with progress in both of these areas last week, as well as benign central bank developments, markets received a welcome boost. European and US markets both hit record highs last week.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week saw equity markets tread water ahead of a number of upcoming notable events and catalysts expected this week. Still, the narrative around US trade relations with the rest of the world was a prime focus, as US President Donald Trump shared his thoughts on the US relationship with a number of different countries. 

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

We expect the conclusion of the UK Conservative leadership battle and the stance of the UK’s new leader will dominate headlines this week. We can also expect more developments from both Italy and Spain on the political front. Earnings season in Europe will see its busiest week of the quarter so far, with single stock moves likely to impact indices.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equities were relatively flat last week as investors watched with bated breath ahead of the meeting between US and Chinese Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. Volumes were lower, even into month- and quarter-end, as markets anticipated a stalemate between the two sides.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Global equities’ performance last week contributed to their strongest quarter since 2010. The rally comes on the back of what was a weighty selloff for global equities into year-end last year.  Renewed hopes that a trade deal between the United States and China will eventually be struck drove the move higher, along with a more dovish attitude from the US Federal Reserve which alleviated some pressure on markets. US and Chinese equities have been at the forefront of this strength.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Equity markets continued their recovery last week as optimism around US/China trade talks and a continued dovish narrative from the US Federal Reserve eased investor nerves. In Europe, macro data continues to be lacklustre and the noise around Brexit is back to fever pitch. But European indices still benefitted from the more positive global perspective.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

Positive catalysts helped European equities edge higher throughout last week. These included the hopes of an easing in global trade-war tensions and political progress in Italy. Nevertheless, concerns over Brexit and some disappointing data from Europe and China continue to cast a dark shadow.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

The last few of days in October brought some welcome respite for equity markets thanks to month-end positioning, robust corporate earnings and better tone around US/China trade. Markets were in positive territory last week across the board.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

“If the United Kingdom fails to reach a deal or pass it through Parliament, the prospect of a fresh general election is a very real likelihood, in our view, bringing with it much uncertainty.” Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

“It seems likely the Five Star Movement will have a major part to play in Italian policy going forward. Coalition governments are commonplace in Italy and a single party has not won an outright majority since the Second World War.”- Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team, March 5, 2018.

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes From the Trading Desk – Europe

We’ve seen some dramatic headlines in the wake of last Friday's US equity selloff, but it’s important to remember that equities have had an incredible run over the past year. In relative terms, we consider this pullback to be reasonably small. - Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk Team