Beyond Bulls & Bears

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe

Equities in the United States and Europe continued their grind higher in a holiday-shortened week, which led to lighter volumes and newflow last week. Concerns over rising COVID-19 cases were a concern in a number of countries.

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk—Europe

Talk of a third wave of new COVID-19 cases increased across the European Union last week, with France reimposing lockdown in Paris, and German health officials stating cases are accelerating ‘exponentially’. The picture for the UK economy looks more encouraging. New cases remain far below January highs and hospital numbers continue to fall sharply.

US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Policy and Pandemic Drive Macro View
Perspectives

US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Policy and Pandemic Drive Macro View

We’ve seen aggressive government and central bank support to stimulate economies sickened from COVID-19 slowdowns, but will the global economy right itself in 2021? Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab and Francis Scotland, Director of Global Macro Research at Brandywine Global, share their macro outlook for the year ahead. They opine on whether the glass looks half empty or half full as the world eagerly awaits a vaccine and as US policies shift amid a change in administration.

Yield Curve Hysteria
Fixed Income

Yield Curve Hysteria

The inversion of the Treasury yield curve has recently gotten a lot of attention in the financial press as being a harbinger of economic malaise ahead. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says these conclusions are misguided.

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?
Fixed Income

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab recently shared his perspective on investing at FundForum International 2019 in Copenhagen. He outlines why he thinks many investors are too complacent today, leading to some “dangerous” risk-taking. He also cautions why he thinks the next decade won’t be like the last for investors.

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts
Fixed Income

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its June meeting; it also emphasised its data-driven approach to policy decisions but noted it believes the case for lower interest rates to be strengthening. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai offers her take on the meeting, and why the Fed might actually be exacerbating market volatility ahead.

Slowdown Doesn’t Mean Stop. Our View on US Interest Rates, Inflation and China
Fixed Income

Slowdown Doesn’t Mean Stop. Our View on US Interest Rates, Inflation and China

While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting, the market seems to be thinking the Fed may press pause for an extended period. A prolonged US government shutdown has heightened concerns the economy could be at a tipping point, but Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, weighs in on why the notion the Fed won’t raise rates at all this year “is misguided.”

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?
Fixed Income

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?

There has been a lot of talk this year about the flattening of the US yield curve—which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. Our senior investment leaders make a case that the “predictive power” of the yield curve when it comes to the US economy may not really be so predictive this time around.

Revisiting Corporate Credit amidst Market Volatility
Multi-Asset

Revisiting Corporate Credit amidst Market Volatility

“We are seeing firsthand how thriving corporate profitability has supported select corporate bonds at the fundamental level, seemingly in defiance of more aggressive US Federal Reserve policy and political and geopolitical challenges.” – Ed Perks, CIO of Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

“It seems likely the Five Star Movement will have a major part to play in Italian policy going forward. Coalition governments are commonplace in Italy and a single party has not won an outright majority since the Second World War.”- Franklin Templeton European Trading Desk team, March 5, 2018.

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive
Fixed Income

In the Know: Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Seen as Market Positive

“The markets should take some comfort in Powell, as he is a current Fed governor and more or less represents the current state of affairs, business as usual. He has worked alongside Yellen since 2012, and they are philosophically alike (dovish bent).” Christopher Molumphy, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group

Brexit: All Eyes on the Politicians
Perspectives

Brexit: All Eyes on the Politicians

We believe the ramifications of Brexit for the rest of Europe are far reaching—more so than many people think.