Beyond Bulls & Bears

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Equities in Europe treaded water ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this week, where any hints of tapering will be closely observed. The spread of the Delta variant continues to weigh on sentiment,

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy

This year’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole opens the six months that will likely define the legacy of the Powell Fed’s first term. The robust recovery, high inflation and record asset prices call for the Fed to wind down an extraordinary monetary easing that is also exacerbating economic inequality. But leaving QE isn’t easy, as financial markets have become overly dependent on Fed support. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses the Fed’s challenges and what they mean for investors.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe
Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

After a steady grind higher through the summer, global equities stumbled last week as several headwinds weighed on sentiment. Concerns over the negative impact of Chinese regulatory crackdowns hit a number of sectors, the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and rising concerns over the spread of the Delta COVID-19 variant were all cited as reasons for a pullback.

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?

Prices continue to climb, with the US CPI rising in June by the most since 2008. Financial markets seem to be unfazed, but businesses and consumers appear considerably less sanguine. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why inflation may be less “transitory” than many expect.

On My Mind – The Fed’s Last Call for the Punchbowl?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – The Fed’s Last Call for the Punchbowl?

The Fed now acknowledges inflation risks are to the upside. With high uncertainty on the inflation and employment outlook, adjusting its exceptionally loose monetary stance at the right time and pace become a very difficult high-wire act. In the latest edition of our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s “On My Mind” series, she discusses the Fed’s challenge, and where she is finding opportunities in the market.

US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Policy and Pandemic Drive Macro View
Perspectives

US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Policy and Pandemic Drive Macro View

We’ve seen aggressive government and central bank support to stimulate economies sickened from COVID-19 slowdowns, but will the global economy right itself in 2021? Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab and Francis Scotland, Director of Global Macro Research at Brandywine Global, share their macro outlook for the year ahead. They opine on whether the glass looks half empty or half full as the world eagerly awaits a vaccine and as US policies shift amid a change in administration.

Yield Curve Hysteria
Fixed Income

Yield Curve Hysteria

The inversion of the Treasury yield curve has recently gotten a lot of attention in the financial press as being a harbinger of economic malaise ahead. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says these conclusions are misguided.

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?
Fixed Income

Are Investors Today Too Complacent?

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab recently shared his perspective on investing at FundForum International 2019 in Copenhagen. He outlines why he thinks many investors are too complacent today, leading to some “dangerous” risk-taking. He also cautions why he thinks the next decade won’t be like the last for investors.

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts
Fixed Income

US Fed in Tough Spot as Market Clamours for Rate Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at its June meeting; it also emphasised its data-driven approach to policy decisions but noted it believes the case for lower interest rates to be strengthening. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai offers her take on the meeting, and why the Fed might actually be exacerbating market volatility ahead.

Slowdown Doesn’t Mean Stop. Our View on US Interest Rates, Inflation and China
Fixed Income

Slowdown Doesn’t Mean Stop. Our View on US Interest Rates, Inflation and China

While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its January policy meeting, the market seems to be thinking the Fed may press pause for an extended period. A prolonged US government shutdown has heightened concerns the economy could be at a tipping point, but Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, weighs in on why the notion the Fed won’t raise rates at all this year “is misguided.”

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?
Fixed Income

The US Yield Curve: Should We Fear Inversion?

There has been a lot of talk this year about the flattening of the US yield curve—which is a graphical representation of the spread between short- and long-term interest-rate instruments. Our senior investment leaders make a case that the “predictive power” of the yield curve when it comes to the US economy may not really be so predictive this time around.

Revisiting Corporate Credit amidst Market Volatility
Multi-Asset

Revisiting Corporate Credit amidst Market Volatility

“We are seeing firsthand how thriving corporate profitability has supported select corporate bonds at the fundamental level, seemingly in defiance of more aggressive US Federal Reserve policy and political and geopolitical challenges.” – Ed Perks, CIO of Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions