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Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Franklin Templeton’s Notes from the Trading Desk offers a weekly overview of what our professional traders and analysts are watching in the markets. As part of Templeton Global Equity Group, the European equity desk is manned by a team of professionals based in Edinburgh, Scotland, whose job it is to monitor the markets around the world. Their views are theirs alone and are not intended to be construed as investment advice.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

To start the week, focus will be on headlines from the China’s National People's Congress. Through the course of the week there are some a number of macro data points to watch out for, but the February US employment report, out on Friday, will be the key focus.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Debate still rages on where we go from here. January is typically considered a good predictor for stock market performance for the rest of the year—the so-called “January barometer”.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

This week, investor focus is firmly on central bank meetings, with the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday, and Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. These meetings face greater scrutiny, given we have seen signs of inflation peaking in several regions, leading to hopes we may soon see a tilt from some central banks.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week was choppy as investors digested central-banker commentary, macro data and corporate earnings. Of note, a number of Federal Reserve speakers stuck to their hawkish narrative and some weak US macro data raised doubts over a “soft landing” for the US economy.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

2022 was a crazy year for global financial markets amidst escalating geopolitical risk, record levels of inflation and the highest central bank hiking cycle ever witnessed. Geopolitics in Europe and the subsequent knock-on effect for energy prices will likely continue to be a focus for investors. China’s COVID reopening is another focal point for investors at the start of the year.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Unsurprisingly, it looks like an extremely quiet week ahead. No meaningful corporate events are scheduled this week and the macro calendar is also light, with the Eurozone Consumer Confidence reading on Tuesday and UK GDP Thursday the highlights.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The week ahead has the potential to set the tone for markets into year end and into the first quarter of 2023. We have central bank meetings from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank (SNB) throughout the week

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Looking ahead to the end of the year, this week and next look to be crucial in terms of setting investor sentiment. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its policy meeting, and Chinese Consumer Price Index data stand out.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

This year has been a bit of a bloodbath for investors, apart from those who are weighted towards energy. This is leading many investors to chase performance into year-end.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

With the US Thanksgiving holiday, all the US macro data is out Monday-Wednesday, including the Fed meeting minutes, which will be a focus. In Asia, COVID-19 cases are on the rise in China, so this is a dynamic to keep a close eye on.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The G20 summit in Bali will be a key focus for markets this week. Leaders will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Geopolitical tensions, the war in Ukraine and inflation levels are expected to be the hot topics at the summit. Outside of that, inflation prints in Europe throughout the week will be closely watched.