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Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Looking ahead to the end of the year, this week and next look to be crucial in terms of setting investor sentiment. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its policy meeting, and Chinese Consumer Price Index data stand out.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

This year has been a bit of a bloodbath for investors, apart from those who are weighted towards energy. This is leading many investors to chase performance into year-end.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

With the US Thanksgiving holiday, all the US macro data is out Monday-Wednesday, including the Fed meeting minutes, which will be a focus. In Asia, COVID-19 cases are on the rise in China, so this is a dynamic to keep a close eye on.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The G20 summit in Bali will be a key focus for markets this week. Leaders will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Geopolitical tensions, the war in Ukraine and inflation levels are expected to be the hot topics at the summit. Outside of that, inflation prints in Europe throughout the week will be closely watched.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Pressures on the UK consumer remain front and centre. There is a focus on the extreme moves in mortgage rates and the potential impact this will have on the housing market and consumer spending. The government has brought forward its fiscal statement to 31 October in order to shore up market confidence.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week, the United Kingdom took centre stage for all the wrong reasons. Following the controversial “fiscal statement” from the UK government on the prior Friday, financial markets took fright at the sweeping range of unfunded tax cuts and spending proposals, as many felt the plans lacked in detail and costing.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Norges Bank and the Riksbank all raised interest rates last week and paved the way for further hikes at upcoming meetings.

Notes from the Trading Desk: Europe

Headwinds persist and volatility remains, and investors seem to be looking beyond the immediate issues that have been weighing on stocks, giving the market short-term, risk-on moves higher.

Notes from the Trading Desk: Europe

The ECB will be a key focus on Thursday as it considers accelerating the pace of interest-rate hikes. The market is placing about a 70% probability on a 75-basis-point increase, which would be the ECB’s single biggest hike since its inception. Sticking with Europe the energy crisis will remain front and centre given the Nord Stream 1 shut down. Markets will also be watching German Industrial Production data, out on Wednesday.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Last week was another tough one for European equities, and the euro traded through parity versus the US dollar for much of the week given the gloomy economic backdrop. In addition, we saw a late selloff on Friday following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. It is worth noting that volumes remained low.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Energy prices continue to be a focus for the markets. European gas prices have edged back towards their year-to-date highs. In addition, relatively low water levels in the Rhine are not helping sentiment and could continue to dampen German economic growth.

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Europe remain heightened, with gas supplies restricted by Russia’s political posturing. Meanwhile, US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has caused some shockwaves and signalled a deterioration in US-China relations.