Beyond Bulls & Bears

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Fixed Income

Michael Hasenstab: An Update on our Global Markets Resilience Scores

Templeton Global Macro makes a compelling case that finding attractive opportunities in emerging markets lies in distinguishing the more resilient countries from the rest. Here, CIO Michael Hasenstab provides an update of the team’s proprietary “Local Markets Resiliency Index” and highlights the scores of seven different countries—Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia and South Africa.

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Multi-Asset

Will the Roar of Market Tensions Tame Global Growth?

The first quarter of 2018 started out like a lamb but went out like a lion as long-dormant volatility began to roar. Issues like inflation fears, trade tensions and geopolitical risks contributed to market turbulence, leaving many investors wondering whether these issues will put a damper on global growth—and end the US market’s nine-year bull run. Three of Franklin Templeton’s senior investment leaders—Stephen Dover, Christopher Molumphy and Ed Perks—weigh in.

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Fixed Income

Environmental, Social and Governance Factors in Global Macro Investing

“Strong governance institutions, social cohesion and sustainable environmental policies support economic growth and higher income levels. At the same time, as countries become richer they can invest more in state-of-the-art infrastructure, assign greater priority to environmental sustainability, and develop a well-educated middle class that demands better social and political institutions.” - Michael Hasenstab, CIO, Templeton Global Macro

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Multi-Asset

The Year Ahead: Will the US and Global Expansion Continue in 2018?

January is a month of resolutions and predictions, and perhaps more often than not, both tend to be abandoned come spring. While we don’t have a magic crystal ball to predict where the markets may be headed next, we do have a team of respected professionals who recently assembled to discuss whether they think last year’s economic momentum could continue—and where they see potential threats on the horizon.

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Perspectives

Time to Reset Expectations?

Global markets have been relatively calm this summer despite many uncertainties. Geopolitical risks have continued across the globe, and in some areas, looming monetary policy changes also appear likely. A key question for many investors is whether the sleepy summer period of low volatility will give way to a more turbulent autumn. Franklin Templeton’s senior investment leaders offer their perspective on the markets and discuss where they see opportunities and risks ahead.

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Fixed Income

India’s Reform Movement Gains Momentum

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab recently visited India, and takes a look at some of the reforms he’s most excited about as a global fixed-income investor. He believes India’s future looks bright and that its growth trajectory should remain strong—despite some short-term adjustments.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: July

In this month's Global Economic Perspective, our Fixed Income Group dives into diverging central bank policy and weighs in on whether the European Central Bank is likely to be less accommodative—and what its timing might look like.

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Emerging Markets

How the Asian Financial Crisis Reshaped Emerging Markets

Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab looks at how the response of local policymakers in the two decades since the Asian Financial Crisis has impacted emerging markets, and why he believes some of the most unloved local currency markets today represent exciting opportunities.

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Fixed Income

Global Economic Perspective: May

In this month’s Global Economic Perspective, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group examines the aftermath of the French election in Europe, signs of a pickup in global growth and whether Japan’s “Abenomics” experiment is working.

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Emerging Markets

Spotlight on Brazil

Brazil’s middle class has expressed a clear desire for greater transparency and for an economic policy framework that can bring back robust growth in living standards. We believe this will act as a powerful incentive for Brazil’s policymakers to push forward with structural reforms, including improvements to the business environment.

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Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities

Perhaps the most important step that emerging markets have taken to reduce their vulnerability to financial crises is the remarkable deepening of domestic financial markets over the past decade. In many countries, the development of a reliable domestic investor base has benefited from the rise of a broad middle class.

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Emerging Markets

Global Macro Imbalances and Opportunities

From a labor market perspective, we think it is hard to justify maintaining interest rates at zero or to pursue a negative-interest rate policy in the United States. We would argue the Fed should be raising rates sooner rather than later to avoid losing credibility.