Beyond Bulls & Bears

Global Economic Perspective: April

Global Economic Perspective: April

We have some apprehension about the more dovish stance taken by the US Federal Reserve, which in our view may place too great a focus on global factors, despite a relatively tight US labor market and some indications of a pickup in core inflation.

Global Economic Perspective: March

Global Economic Perspective: March

We regard the greater stability in commodity prices, along with a lessening of volatility in financial markets, as welcome, and believe it should provide a more stable platform for the global economy, where growth remains acceptable, if lower than desirable.

Global Economic Perspective: February

Global Economic Perspective: February

The impact of China’s rebalancing is likely to remain a headwind, particularly for countries that have relied on its appetite for raw materials. But this is likely to be counterbalanced by the continuation of the various accommodative monetary policies that are in place around the world.

Global Economic Perspective: January

Global Economic Perspective: January

Though the rest of the world may not be doing as well as the United States, we think global growth remains acceptable and do not anticipate a global recession or global deflation.

Global Economic Perspective: November

Global Economic Perspective: November

While China’s manufacturing sector—which drove China’s rise to its place as the world’s second-largest economy—has been losing steam, it is being supplanted by a domestic, consumer-led economy propelled by a rising middle class with growing income. Other Asian countries are on a similar trajectory.

A Decisive Monetary Policy Approach Is About More Than Economics

A Decisive Monetary Policy Approach Is About More Than Economics

With monetary policy divergence between the developed world’s three most influential central banks set to continue, it seems clear to us that the need for a decisiveness of approach extends beyond a simple economic argument.

Global Economic Perspective: October

Global Economic Perspective: October

Overall, while there are plenty of ‘problem children’ in the emerging-market space, there are undoubtedly assets and currencies being beaten down by broad-brush assessments of economic prospects that merit renewed attention.

European QE: Has It Been Worth the Effort?

European QE: Has It Been Worth the Effort?

Now, we feel the time is right for a further shot in the arm. In our view, it’s not a question of whether the ECB will extend QE, it’s a question of when: Will the announcement come in October or December?

Global Economic Perspective: September

Global Economic Perspective: September

While the [US] Fed is facing an extremely delicate task ... it is still our belief that the US economy remains sufficiently strong to be able to bear a gradual increase in short-term rates in the coming months.

A Macro View of Recent Market Volatility

A Macro View of Recent Market Volatility

When we look at how much market panic there has been, you’d be under the impression China is headed full-speed into full-blown recession. That is not our call. We expect moderation in China’s growth and continue to see it as healthy.

Global Economic Perspective: August

Global Economic Perspective: August

We believe sound headline job creation figures point to rate increases by a [US] Fed that would like to begin to ‘normalize’ monetary policy when possible. The US economy is no longer in the emergency room, as it was in December 2008.

Global Economic Perspective: July

Global Economic Perspective: July

All in all, recent data would seem to confirm the Fed’s view that first-quarter 2015 weakness was 'transitory' and that the US economy regained its footing in the second quarter, perhaps setting the stage for a more robust second half of the year.