Beyond Bulls & Bears

Quick Thoughts: Defensive on the Curve
Fixed Income

Quick Thoughts: Defensive on the Curve

Stephen Dover shares insights on investing in fixed income in a rising-rate environment with Walter Kilcullen, Head of US High Yield for Western Asset Management, and Reema Agarwal, Head of Floating Rate Debt for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.

Quick Thoughts: On Central Banks and Volatility
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: On Central Banks and Volatility

Thoughts on recent global market volatility and potential central bank actions from our EMEA Investment Strategist, Kim Catechis, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s David Zahn, and Martin Currie’s Zehrid Osmani.

Quick Thoughts: Inflation, Debt, and Changing Economic Sweet Spots
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: Inflation, Debt, and Changing Economic Sweet Spots

Investors need a more flexible, opportunistic approach to investing, given the current low interest rate environment with the likelihood of interest rates rising over the next few years, according to Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Investment Institute. He opines on inflation, debt, and changing economic sweet spots.

Quick Thoughts: Debating the Next Moves for Inflation, Growth, and Rates
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: Debating the Next Moves for Inflation, Growth, and Rates

Rising inflation globally raises the question of whether inflation is persistent versus transitory, driving debate among our investment managers. Our Stephen Dover, Head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently discussed economic growth, interest rates, and inflation during a roundtable, “What Our Managers Think: Debating the Next Moves for Inflation, Growth, and Rates,” with Sonal Desai, Ph.D., Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income; John Bellows, Ph.D., Portfolio Manager, Western Asset; and Gene Podkaminer, CFA, Head of Research, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. Below are some takeaway points.

Paradigm Shifts Impacting the Investment Landscape: China, Inflation and Monetary Policy
Fixed Income

Paradigm Shifts Impacting the Investment Landscape: China, Inflation and Monetary Policy

There are several “paradigm shifts” impacting markets today, according to Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab. He outlines how central banks might approach tapering of pandemic-driven asset purchases, and the potential investment risks and opportunities he sees.  

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Leaving QE, Never Easy

This year’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole opens the six months that will likely define the legacy of the Powell Fed’s first term. The robust recovery, high inflation and record asset prices call for the Fed to wind down an extraordinary monetary easing that is also exacerbating economic inequality. But leaving QE isn’t easy, as financial markets have become overly dependent on Fed support. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses the Fed’s challenges and what they mean for investors.

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: Nothing to see here. Really?

Prices continue to climb, with the US CPI rising in June by the most since 2008. Financial markets seem to be unfazed, but businesses and consumers appear considerably less sanguine. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why inflation may be less “transitory” than many expect.

On My Mind: Something Has to Give
Fixed Income

On My Mind: Something Has to Give

There are differing opinions for why US Treasury yields have suddenly dropped. In her latest “On My Mind,” our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai outlines three possible scenarios and the logical implications of each; in the current constellation of asset prices, she argues, something does not add up.

Quick Thoughts: Why Our Managers Disagree on Inflation, Rates, and Growth
Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: Why Our Managers Disagree on Inflation, Rates, and Growth

Multiple leadership and diverse views steer how we invest in our global economy. Our recent macroeconomic investment roundtable with three of our autonomous investment managers found commonalities and disagreements on the path for global economic growth. All agreed that global growth will be significant this year, but there is some disagreement as to how persistent it will be. Our Chief Market Strategist Stephen Dover believes when thinking about fixed income investing, it is important to think beyond rising interest rates and focus on the many ways to obtain total return.

On My Mind: A Tale of Two Recoveries
Fixed Income

On My Mind: A Tale of Two Recoveries

While a global recovery has now become the base case for financial markets, differences between countries and regions on the path toward normalcy are significant and seem set to widen. In the latest edition of our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s “On My Mind” series, she evaluates the differences in policy decisions, both on the fiscal front as well as in vaccination campaigns, and how the resulting differing paths will shape the map of investment opportunities.

Coming Out of COVID-19: A Look at Interest Rates and Inflation in Europe
Fixed Income

Coming Out of COVID-19: A Look at Interest Rates and Inflation in Europe

There is hope that economies will see a more sustainable and robust recovery this year, given unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus and as more individuals are vaccinated against COVID-19. But one question for investors is what happens next—will inflation and higher interest rates be a consequence? Our Head of European Fixed Income David Zahn shares his views.

On My Mind – Inflation: The Devil We Knew
Fixed Income

On My Mind – Inflation: The Devil We Knew

Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai has been ahead of the curve in flagging the risks of inflation and rising rates that have now entered the mainstream debate. In this article, she assesses the coming together of an unprecedented fiscal stimulus, a very accommodative US Federal Reserve, and an economy poised to rebound as vaccination campaigns pave the way for reopening businesses. She cautions that central bankers might be underestimating how difficult it will be to deal with the 'devil they knew'—inflation—especially if inflation expectations become unmoored; and, she highlights the key fixed income investment implications.