monetary policy and the markets - Beyond Bulls & Bears

Fixed Income

On My Mind: The first cut is the deepest

Where does the Fed go next after this week’s 50 basis point interest-rate cut? Thoughts from Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | September 18, 2024

Perspectives

Quick Thoughts: US employment insights and implications for investors

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest message on monetary policy signals readiness for rate cuts—Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover explains the implications for investors.

Stephen H. Dover, CFA | September 03, 2024

Fixed Income

On My Mind: Inflation—The Fed’s sticky wicket

Franklin Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai discusses why the January inflation print confirms that the “last mile” of disinflation may prove to be a lot harder than markets expect, and investors should brace for more volatility and a possible move of 10-year Treasury yields back in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | February 14, 2024

Fixed Income

Food for Thought: The Fed—We’ll get there when we get there!

Instead of pivoting directly toward an easing bias, the Federal Open Market Committee opted for a wait-and-watch approach in January. Franklin Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan expects rate cuts to come, but not quite as soon as or as many as markets have been anticipating.

Nikhil Mohan | February 02, 2024

Equity

Quick Thoughts: Kicking the can down the road

While interest rates were left unchanged at the January Fed meeting as expected, there were some interesting hints about future monetary policy. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, opines.

Stephen H. Dover, CFA | February 01, 2024

Fixed Income

On My Mind: Miracle on 20th Street

Markets cheered a “dovish” December Federal Reserve meeting, seen as an early gift to investors. But has the battle against inflation been won? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai weighs in.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | December 14, 2023

Fixed Income

On My Mind: The structural shift that wasn’t

Markets seem to be coming around to our Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai’s view that the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer, but now runaway fiscal deficits pose further upside risk to yields in the long term, she warns. She shares her latest insights on the fiscal and monetary outlook and the implications for investors.

Sonal Desai, Ph.D. | August 23, 2023

Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

it is clear to us that the Fed and the ECB are nearing the end of their hiking cycles. However, the market still appears to be split on a what September may bring, as data could push the decision either way. All eyes will be on the Bank of England (BoE) this week.

July 31, 2023

Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan hold their respective policy meetings this week. The market anticipates the Fed and ECB will hike rates 25 basis points.

July 24, 2023

Fixed Income

Quick Thoughts: Impacts of ceilings, tightening and liquidity

Head of Franklin Templeton Institute Stephen Dover recently moderated a panel of our leading economists and asked this key question: What’s in store for investors in the second half? Here’s a quick take of their answers.

Stephen H. Dover, CFA | July 17, 2023

Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

Unsurprisingly, it looks like an extremely quiet week ahead. No meaningful corporate events are scheduled this week and the macro calendar is also light, with the Eurozone Consumer Confidence reading on Tuesday and UK GDP Thursday the highlights.

December 19, 2022

Equity

Notes from the Trading Desk – Europe

The next two weeks could be key for setting the tone into year end. There are several central bank meetings this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, Norges Bank and Bank of England. Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate decision and statement will likely be the key event of the week.

October 31, 2022